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At Halloween a Fed Funds Rate Cut This Way Comes

Next Thursday, Oct. 31, Halloween, investors will likely see a 25 basis points reduction to the Federal funds rate from the Federal Open Market Committee, when it meets that day. It would drop to a range of 1.50%-1.75%. My sense is the market spies a treat, not a trick. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.

With the Fed futures market signaling a 93% probability, it’s almost a done deal. The FOMC pays close attention to the Fed futures markets as the pulse of investor thinking, past meeting minutes have shown. If the committee wanted to show investors it disagreed with that probability it would have made quiet but definitive noises about it by now. I shudder to think what would happen in the unlikely event the FOMC doesn’t cut. That would be a Halloween to remember.

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