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30Y-10Y Yield Curve Predicted Soft ISM, Now Shows Growth

Given the tough week we just endured, and the thick cloud of doom that hangs stagnant over financial markets, I must reiterate a critical data point that is being obscured by this gloom.

The bears are ranting and raving about a recession or a bear market, but investors need to concentrate on something that I’ve been going on about now for some time.  It is worth repeating because in 2020—with hindsight—it will be the kind of thing that you say, “Oh, of course there wasn’t going to be a recession. Just look at what the long term yield curve spread was telling us in the fall of 2019.”

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