I recently had lunch with a good friend and former J.P. Morgan colleague and among the many things we chatted about was that we agreed that it somehow seems many more "parties" are cheering for economic gloom/recession. Moreover, this has come up in more than a few conversations with our clients and investors.

I don’t have to tell you that the media is heavy with economic gloom. Just glance at any major newspaper or website. My conclusion is that the following "interested parties" benefit from a U.S. recession and rising economic gloom:

- Short sellers (obvious)

- Democratic candidates because the economy is a BIG swing factor

- Trump haters (more broadly)

- Bond holders (falling rates = massive upside to bond prices)

- China (cause Trump to fold)

- Media (turmoil and bad news sells baby!)

- Europe (because of schadenfreude)

- Private equity funds with large cash positions

Consequently, the public’s interest on the “inverted yield curve" and on "recession" is rising. It’s actually a ballistic surge in focus. I think the best way to appreciate the "over sensitivity" to recession risk is to just look at Google search volumes today compared to the prior recession. As the chart below shows:

- “Inverted yield curve" searches are four times t...

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