Mon September 11, 2023

Important week ahead, and we expect August CPI (9/13) of +0.20% core or less to further reduce odds of a Nov hike, a positive for equities. Even as UAW strike looms.

We discuss: An important week lies ahead, most notably August CPI on 9/13 but also $AAPL debut and potential UAW strike.  That said, we still view Sept as front-loaded on...

Mon May 1, 2023

Arguably, this coming week most critical to our positive equity 2023 thesis. April ISM might be inflection = tactically favor Industrials $XLI this week. Plus, May FOMC might be last hike of cycle = thesis changing.

This is the most hated 7-month, 20% rally ever. This coming week is arguably the most critical to our positive equity thesis in 2023. The S&P 500 is up 9%...

Thu April 27, 2023

SPECIAL REPORT: Oct likely bottom, but catalyst remains Fed. What works remainder of 2023. Webinar today at 2pm ET

Reminder, tune in today for an important webinar. View our presentation deck HERE. We are publishing a special report today highlighting why we believe Oct 12, 2022 was the low...

Fri February 3, 2023

Nasdaq Posts Fifth Straight Week of Gains

Good evening: _“Our core holdings are the same as last year. We own shares of the best businesses in the world. Our attitude is that of a museum director: We...

Thu February 2, 2023

Powell cited "disinflation" 13 times in Feb FOMC presser (0 in Dec). Fed moved forward goal post = strengthening case >20% gain in 2023.

Going into this Fed decision day, investors told us anyone "rational" expects the Fed to come out hawkish, particularly given how much financial conditions eased since October:Equities were under selling...

Thu June 30, 2022

Live Techincal Analysis June 2022

Mark will be conducting a live Webinar session for the most popular stocks requested by our subscribers. Mark will give his quick take (45 sec-1-minute of analysis) and consider several...

Wed June 15, 2022

Markets far more de-risked into June FOMC. And +75bp brings rates closer to market expectations.

Since Friday's CPI (higher CPI) and U Mich Consumer Confidence survey (rise in consumer inflation expectations), consensus expectations for June is now a 75bp hike (vs 50bp prior). This is...

Mon June 13, 2022

Investors have become "single issue" voters (inflation)... and Tech + small-caps quietly gaining

The May CPI report (reported Friday), coupled with the U Mich Consumer Confidence survey, showed inflation remains sticky. And while there was some evidence, on the margin, of inflation pressures...

Fri June 10, 2022

Emerging leadership of Tech + China supports better 2H outlook... more signs forward inflation cooling

As many of our clients have remarked recently, every economic data point is really an inflation report. Repeating the obvious logic: trajectory of inflation impacts Fed rate path. Thus, every...

Wed June 8, 2022

"Soft landing" scenario strengthening. 1980s inflation broken when "goods" inflation peaked. Consumer discounts ahead. Target confirms. Manheim Index shows Luxury + Full-sized tanking.

Investors tell us they don't want to "fight the Fed" and as long as the Fed is tight, they will not touch equities. This is intuitively sound, but here are...

Mon June 6, 2022

Nasdaq outperformed post dot-com crash. Yup. And structural labor shortage strengthens demand for Technology in 2022

Signs of economic slowing are becoming more prevalent, allaying concerns that the economy is so "hot" that the Fed needs to further accelerate rate hikes. But the unknown is how...

Fri June 3, 2022

As probabilities of benign-er outcomes rise, FAANG/Nasdaq should rebound first

The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure and anxiety will surge regarding...