Stocks built on their advances from last year to rally to records in the new year, trudging higher despite rising geopolitical tensions with Venezuela and mixed jobs reports.
The S&P 500 rallied 1.6% to finish the week at fresh all-time highs of 6,966.28 points — up 1.8% for 2026. In a sign of the rally broadening, 10 out of 11 sectors participated in the gains, with only utilities closing in the red. The information technology sector barely finished in the green, up 0.02% for the week.
“The broader market has been performing much better than large-cap technology, and most Magnificent Seven stocks — outside of Alphabet and Amazon — have largely been consolidating,” Fundstrat Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton said.
One indicator suggests that the gains could continue for the year. The January Barometer dictates that “as January goes, so goes the full year,” with a special focus on the first five days of the month, so it could be perceived as a good thing that the S&P 500 increased 1.1% during that period this year.
Historical data backs up this claim. Since 1950, the S&P 500’s average annual return is 12%. Out of that sample size of 76 years, the index has finished in the green during the first five days for 49 years, and in those instances, the full year gain is 16%. During the 27 years that the index declined during the first five days, the calendar year gain is a mere 3%, according to Fundstrat’s research team, which makes the argument that the January Barometer is important to watch.
“Part of me says it’s intuitive because if stocks do well out of the gate, then it kind of shows you there’s demand for equities,” Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee said. “So, I don’t think it’s so crazy.”
Multiple labor market reports were released this week, though investors remain focused on Friday’s monthly nonfarm payrolls data. The U.S. economy added 50,000 jobs in December, coming in below expectations of 73,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4% and the November level was revised down to 4.5% from 4.6%.
It reassured investors that there is still room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
“In December, Fed Chair Powell says he’s not contemplating hikes and is now dependent on the evolution of the jobs market. A put on the economy is a put on the stock market,” Lee said.
Investors were arguably even more relieved Friday to know that the Supreme Court decision pertaining to tariffs was pushed back to next week.
Chart of the Week
Given that there’s been three years of back-to-back bonanza gains, some investors are still bearish. An analysis by Lee’s team sheds some light there. There’s been four times in history when the S&P 500 has gained over 15% for three straight years. In one of those instances, when stocks rallied during the first five days, the annual return was 20%. For the other three instances, stocks declined an average of 10% when they didn’t inch higher during the first five days. That suggests that 2026 could shape up to be another year of gains.
The Supreme Court today failed to hand down its much anticipated decision on the Trump tariffs. No new decision day was announced. This decision has huge implications for the President’s trade policy and for Congress if it needs to take action due to the decision. Stay tuned this is a big deal.
MAGS 0.74% Roundhill’s Magnificent 7 ETF has largely been sideways since August, so the resilience of many US Markets hitting new all-time highs shows the ability of many sectors to have rebounded to help buoy market indices despite the lagging of “Mag 7” I expect that AAPL, TSLA starting to rebound coupled with NVDA turning back up should be a catalyst for outperformance in Tech which should last into February as “Mag 7” starts to rebound and QQQ breaks out
TSLA 2.15% also is rebounding following its pullback into key support at $420-$425 into mid-week. Yesterday’s reversal coupled with today’s upside follow-through is a technical positive for this stock which has now broken the downtrend from 12/22 peaks. I anticipate that TSLA should claw back to new highs in the weeks ahead with first resistance near $460, then $473 and then $499 being very important near last December peaks. This looks like an excellent risk/reward given its two-week decline which brought momentum down while larger intermediate-term uptrends remain very much intact. I am expecting a good one-month bounce out of TSLA from current levels and will discuss upside targets as the stock hopefully makes progress in the weeks ahead.
This research is for the clients of FS Insight only. FSI Subscription entitles the subscriber to 1 user, research cannot be shared or redistributed. For additional information, please contact your sales representative or FS Insight at fsinsight.com.
Conflicts of Interest
This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of FS Insight. At the time of publication of this report, FS Insight does not know of, or have reason to know of any material conflicts of interest.
General Disclosures
FS Insight is an independent research company and is not a registered investment advisor and is not acting as a broker dealer under any federal or state securities laws.
FS Insight is a member of IRC Securities’ Research Prime Services Platform. IRC Securities is a FINRA registered broker-dealer that is focused on supporting the independent research industry. Certain personnel of FS Insight (i.e. Research Analysts) are registered representatives of IRC Securities, a FINRA member firm registered as a broker-dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission and certain state securities regulators. As registered representatives and independent contractors of IRC Securities, such personnel may receive commissions paid to or shared with IRC Securities for transactions placed by FS Insight clients directly with IRC Securities or with securities firms that may share commissions with IRC Securities in accordance with applicable SEC and FINRA requirements. IRC Securities does not distribute the research of FS Insight, which is available to select institutional clients that have engaged FS Insight.
As registered representatives of IRC Securities our analysts must follow IRC Securities’ Written Supervisory Procedures. Notable compliance policies include (1) prohibition of insider trading or the facilitation thereof, (2) maintaining client confidentiality, (3) archival of electronic communications, and (4) appropriate use of electronic communications, amongst other compliance related policies.
FS Insight does not have the same conflicts that traditional sell-side research organizations have because FS Insight (1) does not conduct any investment banking activities, and (2) does not manage any investment funds.
This communication is issued by FS Insight and/or affiliates of FS Insight. This is not a personal recommendation, nor an offer to buy or sell nor a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, investment products or other financial instruments or services. This material is distributed for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting or investment advice.
The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.
Intended for recipient only and not for further distribution without the consent of FS Insight.
This research is for the clients of FS Insight only. Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but FS Insight does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to FS Insight and the analyst’s involvement (if any) with any of the subject companies of the research. All pricing is as of the market close for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, risk tolerance, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Except in circumstances where FS Insight expressly agrees otherwise in writing, FS Insight is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice, including within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client website, fsinsight.com. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or made available to third-party aggregators or the media. Please contact your sales representative if you would like to receive any of our research publications.
