Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Macro Strategy
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Macro Strategy
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
LEAD VS LAG: Case strengthening inflationary drivers peaked (“lead”), even if CPI remains elevated (“lag”) = market perception lagging
Incoming data this week has pointed to a pronounced softening of economic momentum globally, and this has pushed commodity prices lower and similarly pushed down interest rates. And this has shifted market focus:inflation vs recessiontwo paths to ruin, either inflation wrecks the economy or a recession wrecks the economyweakening incoming...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Equities become ‘no bid’ and %-stocks >50D now 2.0%...4 stocks (of 9) need to fall to reach 1.2% seen Mar 23, 2020 and Dec. 24, 2018
Equities have suffered an utter meltdown in the past week as the hot inflation implications of U Mich and CPI pushed stocks into “no bid.” There are many explanations offered for this, but the ultimate takeaway is that equities are in the midst of liquidation. As @jasongoepfert of Sentiment Trader...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
S&P 500 waterfall decline of 16% (5 mos) seen only 18 times since 1940 = signs closer to end of selloff
Fed policy is already “biting hard” after 3 hikes—on the margin, 3 more reasons inflation pressures might be peaking Stocks continued their waterfall decline this...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Treachery Is Fully Evident Markets, But Risk-Reward Is Looking Attractive for Growth Stocks
It's been very painful and I think it's clear that not only are equity markets nervous and edgy, but they're hyper, hyper sensitive to inflationary...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Markets Have Terrible Week, But Risk/Reward of FAANG Beginning to Look Attractive
I am a huge Nicholas Cage fan. Some of his earliest movies had an influence in my youth — Peggy Sue Got Married, Moonstruck, Leaving...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
5 reasons equities rallying. Expanding breadth affirms 2022 “bottom” is in. P/E can expand with Fed hikes, as long as “shocks” are avoided. 2H rally.
We are starting to see strengthening internals for equity markets, including key leadership improvements from Technology ($QQQ) and small-caps ($IWM) and measures such as advance/decline lines. Thus, from the perspective of our Head of Technical Strategy, Mark Newton, this is the healthiest expansion of participation all year, and a key...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Institutional Investors Positioned for Recession. Where Is the Fed Put?
Perhaps the “darkest” report is the following headline, shared by @DougKass on twitter from another sellside firm.on March 4, 2022this firm placed 10% odds of...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
In The Two Weeks Since Start Of This “Global Shakeup” a Few Winners Are Emerging. PLUS: VIX -5.5% + S&P 500 Down 1%=Often Bottom
Take a look at the relative performance of regional stocks vs MSCI ACWI (all world index). Of the 7 indices below:USA and Latin America clearly...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Equities Have Held Up Pretty Well Despite Considerable Uncertainty From The Worsening Situation in Ukraine
So, as shown above, investors seem overly focused on the first driver only. But 4 other factors have an important impact.that is why Tom DeMark’s...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Investors “Buy The Invasion,” VIX Collapse Is Short-Term Positive Signal
So the surge in HK is far greater than one might realize. And hence, HK is testing every citizen. Curiously, hospitalizations are high in HK...
