VIDEO: July Core CPI came in above expectations at +0.32% vs +0.29%, but the market interpreted this dovishly, because tariff pessimism is consensus. Additionally, we discuss why Ethereum’s +78% rise in past 8 weeks reflect the market’s recognition that ETH is arguably the biggest macro trade over the next 10-15 years.
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:49).
The “breakaway” upside day today in the S&P 500 (>1%) is right on schedule, following the lead from Bitcoin which made its breakaway upside move on July 9th. Moreover, equities rallied today on a “hot July CPI” print, which in our view, is a sign of strength and resilience.
- We have been keeping our eye on 5th things for August:
– Aug 4-8: Final week 2Q25 EPS season
– Aug 8: President Trump picks new Fed Chair
– Aug 12: July Core CPI
– Aug 21-23: Fed Powell Speech Jackson Hole
– August seasonals = yikes - Today’s July Core CPI was “hot” versus consensus, coming in at +0.32% vs +0.29% consensus. But this figure was well socialized and many investors were bracing for a rise in CPI and expecting markets to sell off. Thus, this rally is a good sign.
- The odds of a September cut jumped to 94% today, which is further evidence markets interpreted today’s CPI as dovish, even as the actual number came in above consensus.
- There are some important data points for the remainder of this week:
– 8/12 Tue 8:30 AM ET: Jul Core CPI MoM 0.32% vs 0.29%e
– 8/14 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Jul Core PPI MoM 0.23%e
– 8/15 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Jul Retail Sales 0.6%e
– 8/15 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey 0.0e
– 8/15 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Aug P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp 4.4%e
– 8/15 Fri 4:00 PM ET: Jun Net TIC Flows - As for our recommended investment strategies, we are formally adding Ethereum to our “Mag7 & Bitcoin:”
– we have stated multiple times we believe Ethereum is the biggest macro trade over the next 10-15 years
– the primary driver is that Wall Street is moving onto the blockchain, spurred by the GENIUS act (stablecoins) and by SEC’s project crypto (moving Wall Street onto the blockchain).
– the majority of stablecoins and Wall Street projects are being built on Ethereum - Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin YTD gaining +28% vs +18% for Bitcoin. And ETH is within 6% of all-time highs. Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Research for Fundstrat, sees $10,000 ETH and as high as $12,000-$15,000 by year-end. So there is still plenty of upside.
- In fact, the latest BofA Fund Manager survey shows only 9% of fund managers own crypto compared to 48% who own gold. So these are still the earliest days.
- As for getting exposure, one can own ETH ETFs or buy Ethereum treasury stocks, which are the ETH equivalent of Microstrategy (ticker-MSTR -2.58% ). There are 3 large ETH Treasury stocks:
– Bitmine (ticker-BMNR 2.73% ) which owns >1.15 million ETH
– I am Chairman of Bitmine
– Sharplink Gaming (ticker-SBET -0.09% )
– Ethermachine (ticker-DYNX) - As Michael Saylor of MSTR says: “MSTR is leveraged Bitcoin” and similarly, these ETH Treasury companies are leveraged to a rise in ETH.
BOTTOM LINE: Still “most hated rally”
This still remains the “most hated” V-shaped stock rally. We view Bitcoin as a leading indicator and thus, we expect stocks to reattain all time highs, which Bitcoin achieved last week. We see S&P 500 reaching 6,600 by year-end.
And the expected drivers for this upside are:
- Still most hated rally
- Sizable perception gap: Tariff “bark worse than bite”
- Hedge funds increased short interest recently
- $7 trillion cash on sidelines
- Investment outlook better now than in Feb 2025:
– tariff visibility
– tax and de-regulation visibility
– US cos survived 5th major “stress test”
– Fed more dovish in 2026
As for what we would buy
- MAG7 & Bitcoin & Ethereum
- Industrials
- Financials: Large-cap and regional banks
- Small-caps
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45 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 5/22. Full stock list here -> Click here
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Key Incoming Data August:
8/1 8:30 AM ET: Jul Non-farm PayrollsMixed8/1 9:45 AM ET: Jul F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame8/1 10:00 AM ET: Jul F U. Mich. 1yr Inf ExpTame8/1 10:00 AM ET: Jul ISM Manufacturing PMITame8/4 10:00 AM ET: Jun F Durable Goods Orders MoMTame8/5 8:30 AM ET: Jun Trade BalanceTame8/5 9:45 AM ET: Jul F S&P Global Services PMITame8/5 10:00 AM ET: Jul ISM Services PMITame8/7 8:30 AM ET: 2Q P Unit Labor CostsTame8/7 8:30 AM ET: 2Q P Nonfarm Productivity QoQTame8/7 9:00 AM ET: Jul F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame8/7 11:00 AM ET: Jul NYFed 1yr Inf ExpTame8/12 6:00 AM ET: Jul Small Business Optimism SurveyTame8/12 8:30 AM ET: Jul Core CPI MoMTame- 8/14 8:30 AM ET: Jul Core PPI MoM
- 8/15 8:30 AM ET: Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey
- 8/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Retail Sales
- 8/15 10:00 AM ET: Aug P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
- 8/15 4:00 PM ET: Jun Net TIC Flows
- 8/18 10:00 AM ET: Aug NAHB Housing Market Index
- 8/19 9:00 AM ET: Aug M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
- 8/20 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 8/21 8:30 AM ET: Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook
- 8/21 9:45 AM ET: Aug P S&P Global Services PMI
- 8/21 9:45 AM ET: Aug P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- 8/21 10:00 AM ET: Jul Existing Home Sales
- 8/25 8:30 AM ET: Jul Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 8/25 10:00 AM ET: Jul New Home Sales
- 8/25 10:30 AM ET: Aug Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
- 8/26 8:30 AM ET: Jul P Durable Goods Orders MoM
- 8/26 9:00 AM ET: Jun S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
- 8/26 10:00 AM ET: Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- 8/26 10:00 AM ET: Aug Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
- 8/28 8:30 AM ET: 2Q S GDP QoQ
- 8/28 11:00 AM ET: Aug Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
- 8/29 8:30 AM ET: Jul Core PCE MoM
- 8/29 10:00 AM ET: Aug F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:
