Wed, August 13, 2025 | 7:50AM ET

Breakaway S&P 500 on 8/12 on schedule (1-month behind Bitcoin). A sign of strength when equities rally on a "hot CPI" print

VIDEO: July Core CPI came in above expectations at +0.32% vs +0.29%, but the market interpreted this dovishly, because tariff pessimism is consensus. Additionally, we discuss why Ethereum’s +78% rise in past 8 weeks reflect the market’s recognition that ETH is arguably the biggest macro trade over the next 10-15 years.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:49).

Breakaway S&P 500 on 8/12 on schedule (1-month behind Bitcoin). A sign of strength when equities rally on a hot CPI print

The “breakaway” upside day today in the S&P 500 (>1%) is right on schedule, following the lead from Bitcoin which made its breakaway upside move on July 9th. Moreover, equities rallied today on a “hot July CPI” print, which in our view, is a sign of strength and resilience.

We have been keeping our eye on 5th things for August:
– Aug 4-8: Final week 2Q25 EPS season
– Aug 8: President Trump picks new Fed Chair
– Aug 12: July Core CPI
– Aug 21-23: Fed Powell Speech Jackson Hole
– August seasonals = yikes
Today’s July Core CPI was “hot” versus consensus, coming in at +0.32% vs +0.29% consensus. But this figure was well socialized and many investors were bracing for a rise in CPI and expecting markets to sell off. Thus, this rally is a good sign.
The odds of a September cut jumped to 94% today, which is further evidence markets interpreted today’s CPI as dovish, even as the actual number came in above consensus.

There are some important data points for the remainder of this week:
– 8/12 Tue 8:30 AM ET: Jul Core CPI MoM    0.32% vs 0.29%e
– 8/14 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Jul Core PPI MoM    0.23%e
– 8/15 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Jul Retail Sales    0.6%e
– 8/15 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey    0.0e
– 8/15 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Aug P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp    4.4%e
– 8/15 Fri 4:00 PM ET: Jun Net TIC Flows
As for our recommended investment strategies, we are formally adding Ethereum to our “Mag7 & Bitcoin:”
– we have stated multiple times we believe Ethereum is the biggest macro trade over the next 10-15 years
– the primary driver is that Wall Street is moving onto the blockchain, spurred by the GENIUS act (stablecoins) and by SEC’s project crypto (moving Wall Street onto the blockchain).
– the majority of stablecoins and Wall Street projects are being built on Ethereum
Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin YTD gaining +28% vs +18% for Bitcoin. And ETH is within 6% of all-time highs. Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Research for Fundstrat, sees $10,000 ETH and as high as $12,000-$15,000 by year-end. So there is still plenty of upside.
In fact, the latest BofA Fund Manager survey shows only 9% of fund managers own crypto compared to 48% who own gold. So these are still the earliest days.
As for getting exposure, one can own ETH ETFs or buy Ethereum treasury stocks, which are the ETH equivalent of Microstrategy (ticker-MSTR). There are 3 large ETH Treasury stocks:
– Bitmine (ticker-BMNR) which owns >1.15 million ETH
– I am Chairman of Bitmine
– Sharplink Gaming (ticker-SBET)
– Ethermachine (ticker-DYNX)
As Michael Saylor of MSTR says: “MSTR is leveraged Bitcoin” and similarly, these ETH Treasury companies are leveraged to a rise in ETH.

BOTTOM LINE: Still “most hated rally”

This still remains the “most hated” V-shaped stock rally. We view Bitcoin as a leading indicator and thus, we expect stocks to reattain all time highs, which Bitcoin achieved last week. We see S&P 500 reaching 6,600 by year-end.

And the expected drivers for this upside are:

Still most hated rally
Sizable perception gap: Tariff “bark worse than bite”
Hedge funds increased short interest recently
$7 trillion cash on sidelines
Investment outlook better now than in Feb 2025:
– tariff visibility
– tax and de-regulation visibility
– US cos survived 5^th major “stress test”
– Fed more dovish in 2026

As for what we would buy

MAG7 & Bitcoin & Ethereum
Industrials
Financials: Large-cap and regional banks
Small-caps

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Key Incoming Data August:

~~8/1 8:30 AM ET: Jul Non-farm Payrolls~~ Mixed
~~8/1 9:45 AM ET: Jul F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~8/1 10:00 AM ET: Jul F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp~~ Tame
~~8/1 10:00 AM ET: Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~8/4 10:00 AM ET: Jun F Durable Goods Orders MoM~~ Tame
~~8/5 8:30 AM ET: Jun Trade Balance~~ Tame
~~8/5 9:45 AM ET: Jul F S&P Global Services PMI~~ Tame
~~8/5 10:00 AM ET: Jul ISM Services PMI~~ Tame
~~8/7 8:30 AM ET: 2Q P Unit Labor Costs~~ Tame
~~8/7 8:30 AM ET: 2Q P Nonfarm Productivity QoQ~~ Tame
~~8/7 9:00 AM ET: Jul F Manheim Used Vehicle Index~~ Tame
~~8/7 11:00 AM ET: Jul NYFed 1yr Inf Exp~~ Tame
~~8/12 6:00 AM ET: Jul Small Business Optimism Survey~~ Tame
~~8/12 8:30 AM ET: Jul Core CPI MoM~~ Tame
8/14 8:30 AM ET: Jul Core PPI MoM
8/15 8:30 AM ET: Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey
8/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Retail Sales
8/15 10:00 AM ET: Aug P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
8/15 4:00 PM ET: Jun Net TIC Flows
8/18 10:00 AM ET: Aug NAHB Housing Market Index
8/19 9:00 AM ET: Aug M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
8/20 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Meeting Minutes
8/21 8:30 AM ET: Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook
8/21 9:45 AM ET: Aug P S&P Global Services PMI
8/21 9:45 AM ET: Aug P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
8/21 10:00 AM ET: Jul Existing Home Sales
8/25 8:30 AM ET: Jul Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
8/25 10:00 AM ET: Jul New Home Sales
8/25 10:30 AM ET: Aug Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
8/26 8:30 AM ET: Jul P Durable Goods Orders MoM
8/26 9:00 AM ET: Jun S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
8/26 10:00 AM ET: Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence
8/26 10:00 AM ET: Aug Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
8/28 8:30 AM ET: 2Q S GDP QoQ
8/28 11:00 AM ET: Aug Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
8/29 8:30 AM ET: Jul Core PCE MoM
8/29 10:00 AM ET: Aug F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

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