April Super Granny and Super SMID Granny Market Update Array ( [cookie] => 23d7f1-332a7a-659935-dd4be2-a13ee7 [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 0 [user_id] => 0 [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

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• Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper Grannies
• Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper SMID Grannies
• Chartbook linked below

To download the slide deck for our Market Update Webinar, please click HERE.

VIDEO: We believe there are signs that the S&P 500 has made a structural bottom.  There are 5 possible “shoes to drop” which is why we expect markets to be range-bound, but this does not mean we need to make a new low

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 6:44).

SUPER GRANNIES: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper

Back by popular demand, we are re-introducing our “Super Grannies” (most timely) and “Sleeper Grannies” large-cap stock ideas.

• The rationale is many clients ask us to narrow our recommendations down to a list of “fresh money” ideas.
• We established a criteria of 4 factors to narrow the list to tactical buys:
  – fundamentals using DQM model managed by “tireless Ken”
  – IBD momentum rating
  – technical strength measured by Price >20 DMA, 20 DMA vs 200 DMA and combos
  – Mark Newton’s judgement on technical outlook

• We have 5 tactical buys aka “Super Grannies”
  – Progressive Corp (PGR) <– carry over
  – Netflix Inc (NFLX) <– carry over
  – NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) <– carry over
  – Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
  – Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON)
• The bottom 5 “Sleeper Grannies” are:
  – Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
  – Accenture Plc (ACN)
  – MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR) <– carry over
  – PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) <– carry over
  – Tesla Inc (TSLA) <– carry over

SUPER SMID GRANNIES: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper

Last December, we maintained Small-caps as one of our #1 recommendations in our 2025 year-ahead outlook. We also created the SMID Granny portfolio strategy last year as many of our clients asked us for our Top SMID stock picks.

• We believe the SMID Grannies could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds
• SMID Grannies were selected from a universe consisting of 2,293 small and mid-cap stocks.
• From the SMID Granny portfolio, we employed the same framework mentioned above to identify the 5 most timely ideas and 5 least timely ideas within the SMID Granny portfolio.

• We have 5 tactical buys aka “Super SMID Grannies”
  – Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD)
  – Stride Inc (LRN) <– carry over
  – Stonex Group Inc (SNEX) <– carry over
  – Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)
  – Spotify Technology (SPOT) <– carry over
• The bottom 5 “Sleeper SMID Grannies” are:
  – EnerSys (ENS) <– carry over
  – Dutch Bros Inc (BROS)
  – IONQ Inc (IONQ)
  – Zeta Global Holdings Corp (ZETA) <– carry over
  – Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC) <– carry over

Mark Newton’s Commentary on Super Grannies

Netflix Inc (NFLX)

• Despite choppiness since December, NFLX has suffered no real damage, and trades less than 5% from all-time highs
• Recent consolidation has made momentum start to wane, creating an attractive risk/reward situation
• Long-term trend very much intact for NFLX and I expect a push up to test and exceed former all-time highs at $1064.50 en-route to 1100
• Only a move back under $821 would start to create more structural damage which isn’t expected

Progressive Corp (PGR)

• No evidence of structural damage.  Pullback into early April held the intermediate-term uptrend from July 2023

• Ongoing pattern of higher highs and higher lows

• Last week’s snapback rally was marked by the highest weekly volume since 2023, adding confidence to PGR’s technical situation.

• Movement back to test and exceed all-time highs near $293 looks likely.  Over would argue for $315 into May

• Strong support lies near $248 which I don’t suspect should be broken on any minor pullback

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

• Excellent signs last week of recouping former March lows and also breaking its multi-month downtrend

• Despite churning in recent months, NVDA remains the 2^nd best performing of all stocks in SOX over last 12 months, higher by more than 30%

• Regaining all-time highs might take some time given negative weekly momentum, but last week’s lows near $86.62 looks like solid support

• Expect two-step forward, one-step back type trajectory, and new all—time highs into late Summer

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

• Gradual rounding bottom formation since 2022 bodes well for ABT to push back to challenge and exceed all-time highs in the months ahead

• Recent test of all-time highs in late 2021 proved successful but consolidation has held support near $121.64

• Ongoing uptrend from late 2023 of higher highs and higher lows bodes well for an eventual push back to highs

• Healthcare should be favored seasonally heading into Summer of 2025 along with being a defensive theme during volatile times

Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON)

• Choppiness since November has not adversely affected AXON’s long-term pattern.  Uptrend from 2022 along with 2023 remain very much intact

• AXON still lies roughly 19% off all-time highs.  Yet, the stock has traded up more than 80% off lows made during April of 2024

• Expect eventual test of $716 while movement over should cause a rally to $879 which likely would constitute meaningful resistance

• Barring a move back under $469 AXON looks attractive and dips should be seen as buyable

Super SMID Grannies

Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD)

• Excellent cup and handle pattern since late 2024 bodes well for a coming breakout back to new all-time highs

• Insurance sector holding up quite well during recent volatility, and SKWD is quite attractive here technically

• Strong resistance lies near $55 but expect this is exceeded for a move up to $60

Stride Inc (LRN)

• Remains one of the more highly ranked technical selections within the entire SMID database

• Minor consolidation from February failed to do much damage and has begun to form a bullish base

• Move to test $145 likely and movement above should lead to $160

Stonex Group Inc (SNEX)

• Three-wave choppy consolidation since February has done little damage to SNEX’s broader structure

• Near-term resistance lies near $81-82.  However, a rally over this looks likely given weekly momentum which should help this push up to $90

• Dips should find strong support near $74-$75 and make this a very appealing risk/reward

Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)

• SFM lies just 10% off all-time weekly high close from early 2025.

• Waning momentum doesn’t present much of a bearish case given lack of any meaningful weakness

• Rally back to test and exceed all-time highs near $179 looks likely which should drive this up to $185

Spotify Technology (SPOT)

• Ongoing weekly pattern of higher highs and higher lows with no meaningful deterioration to the broader structure

• Rally back to challenge triangle resistance near $604 likely initially which should then yield to a breakout up to $621

• Consolidation in recent months makes SPOT attractive given no technical damage.  Move back to new all-time highs likely with intermediate-term targets near $680 then $720

• Only a decline under support near $475 would postpone rally which for now seems premature.

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45 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here

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PS: if you are enjoying our service and its evidence-based approach, please leave us a positive 5-star review on Google reviews —> Click here.

Key incoming data April:

• 4/1 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 4/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM Tame
• 4/3 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance Tame
• 4/3 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 4/3 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI Tame
• 4/4 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls Hot
• 4/7 9:00 AM ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 4/8 6:00 AM ET: Mar Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 4/9 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes Mixed
• 4/10 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core CPI MoM Tame
• 4/11 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PPI MoM Tame
• 4/11 10:00 AM ET: Apr P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp Hot
• 4/14 11:00 AM ET: Mar NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Mixed
• 4/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 4/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales
• 4/16 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index
• 4/16 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows
• 4/17 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 4/17 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/23 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales
• 4/23 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 4/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales
• 4/25 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/28 10:30 AM ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 4/29 9:00 AM ET: Feb S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q A GDP QoQ
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q ECI QoQ
• 4/30 10:00 AM ET: Mar Core PCE MoM

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: