Wed, April 16, 2025 | 7:50AM ET

April Super Granny and Super SMID Granny Market Update

Name: FS Insight
Price range: $$$

Tom Lee, CFA ^AC

Head of Research

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Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper Grannies
Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper SMID Grannies
Chartbook linked below

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April Super Granny and Super SMID Granny Market Update

SUPER GRANNIES: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper

Back by popular demand, we are re-introducing our “Super Grannies” (most timely) and “Sleeper Grannies” large-cap stock ideas.

The rationale is many clients ask us to narrow our recommendations down to a list of “fresh money” ideas.
We established a criteria of 4 factors to narrow the list to tactical buys:
– fundamentals using DQM model managed by “tireless Ken”
– IBD momentum rating
– technical strength measured by Price >20 DMA, 20 DMA vs 200 DMA and combos
– Mark Newton’s judgement on technical outlook

We have 5 tactical buys aka “Super Grannies”
– Progressive Corp (PGR) <– carry over
– Netflix Inc (NFLX) <– carry over
– NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) <– carry over
– Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
– Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON)
The bottom 5 “Sleeper Grannies” are:
– Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
– Accenture Plc (ACN)
– MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR) <– carry over
– PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) <– carry over
– Tesla Inc (TSLA) <– carry over

SUPER SMID GRANNIES: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper

Last December, we maintained Small-caps as one of our #1 recommendations in our 2025 year-ahead outlook. We also created the SMID Granny portfolio strategy last year as many of our clients asked us for our Top SMID stock picks.

We believe the SMID Grannies could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds
SMID Grannies were selected from a universe consisting of 2,293 small and mid-cap stocks.
From the SMID Granny portfolio, we employed the same framework mentioned above to identify the 5 most timely ideas and 5 least timely ideas within the SMID Granny portfolio.

We have 5 tactical buys aka “Super SMID Grannies”
– Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD)
– Stride Inc (LRN) <– carry over
– Stonex Group Inc (SNEX) <– carry over
– Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)
– Spotify Technology (SPOT) <– carry over
The bottom 5 “Sleeper SMID Grannies” are:
– EnerSys (ENS) <– carry over
– Dutch Bros Inc (BROS)
– IONQ Inc (IONQ)
– Zeta Global Holdings Corp (ZETA) <– carry over
– Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC) <– carry over

Mark Newton’s Commentary on Super Grannies

Netflix Inc (NFLX)

Despite choppiness since December, NFLX has suffered no real damage, and trades less than 5% from all-time highs
Recent consolidation has made momentum start to wane, creating an attractive risk/reward situation
Long-term trend very much intact for NFLX and I expect a push up to test and exceed former all-time highs at $1064.50 en-route to 1100
Only a move back under $821 would start to create more structural damage which isn’t expected

Progressive Corp (PGR)

No evidence of structural damage. Pullback into early April held the intermediate-term uptrend from July 2023

Ongoing pattern of higher highs and higher lows

Last week’s snapback rally was marked by the highest weekly volume since 2023, adding confidence to PGR’s technical situation.

Movement back to test and exceed all-time highs near $293 looks likely. Over would argue for $315 into May

Strong support lies near $248 which I don’t suspect should be broken on any minor pullback

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

Excellent signs last week of recouping former March lows and also breaking its multi-month downtrend

Despite churning in recent months, NVDA remains the 2^nd best performing of all stocks in SOX over last 12 months, higher by more than 30%

Regaining all-time highs might take some time given negative weekly momentum, but last week’s lows near $86.62 looks like solid support

Expect two-step forward, one-step back type trajectory, and new all—time highs into late Summer

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Gradual rounding bottom formation since 2022 bodes well for ABT to push back to challenge and exceed all-time highs in the months ahead

Recent test of all-time highs in late 2021 proved successful but consolidation has held support near $121.64

Ongoing uptrend from late 2023 of higher highs and higher lows bodes well for an eventual push back to highs

Healthcare should be favored seasonally heading into Summer of 2025 along with being a defensive theme during volatile times

Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON)

Choppiness since November has not adversely affected AXON’s long-term pattern. Uptrend from 2022 along with 2023 remain very much intact

AXON still lies roughly 19% off all-time highs. Yet, the stock has traded up more than 80% off lows made during April of 2024

Expect eventual test of $716 while movement over should cause a rally to $879 which likely would constitute meaningful resistance

Barring a move back under $469 AXON looks attractive and dips should be seen as buyable

Super SMID Grannies

Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD)

Excellent cup and handle pattern since late 2024 bodes well for a coming breakout back to new all-time highs

Insurance sector holding up quite well during recent volatility, and SKWD is quite attractive here technically

Strong resistance lies near $55 but expect this is exceeded for a move up to $60

Stride Inc (LRN)

Remains one of the more highly ranked technical selections within the entire SMID database

Minor consolidation from February failed to do much damage and has begun to form a bullish base

Move to test $145 likely and movement above should lead to $160

Stonex Group Inc (SNEX)

Three-wave choppy consolidation since February has done little damage to SNEX’s broader structure

Near-term resistance lies near $81-82. However, a rally over this looks likely given weekly momentum which should help this push up to $90

Dips should find strong support near $74-$75 and make this a very appealing risk/reward

Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)

SFM lies just 10% off all-time weekly high close from early 2025.

Waning momentum doesn’t present much of a bearish case given lack of any meaningful weakness

Rally back to test and exceed all-time highs near $179 looks likely which should drive this up to $185

Spotify Technology (SPOT)

Ongoing weekly pattern of higher highs and higher lows with no meaningful deterioration to the broader structure

Rally back to challenge triangle resistance near $604 likely initially which should then yield to a breakout up to $621

Consolidation in recent months makes SPOT attractive given no technical damage. Move back to new all-time highs likely with intermediate-term targets near $680 then $720

Only a decline under support near $475 would postpone rally which for now seems premature.

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45 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here

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Key incoming data April:

~~4/1 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~4/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~4/1 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings~~ Tame
~~4/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM~~ Tame
~~4/3 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance~~ Tame
~~4/3 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI~~ Tame
~~4/3 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI~~ Tame
~~4/4 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls~~ Hot
~~4/7 9:00 AM ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index~~ Tame
~~4/8 6:00 AM ET: Mar Small Business Optimism Survey~~ Tame
~~4/9 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes~~ Mixed
~~4/10 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core CPI MoM~~ Tame
~~4/11 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PPI MoM~~ Tame
~~4/11 10:00 AM ET: Apr P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp~~ Hot
~~4/14 11:00 AM ET: Mar NYFed 1yr Inf Exp~~ Mixed
~~4/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey~~ Tame
4/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales
4/16 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index
4/16 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows
4/17 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook
4/17 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI
4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
4/23 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales
4/23 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book
4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM
4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
4/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales
4/25 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
4/28 10:30 AM ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
4/29 9:00 AM ET: Feb S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
4/29 10:00 AM ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
4/29 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings
4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q A GDP QoQ
4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q ECI QoQ
4/30 10:00 AM ET: Mar Core PCE MoM

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

Disclosures (show)

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Analyst Certification (Reg AC)

Tom Lee, CFA, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships. Neither I, nor a member of my household is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is/are the subject of this research report. There is a possibility that we will from time to time have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of FS Insight. At the time of publication of this report, FS Insight does not know of, or have reason to know of any material conflicts of interest.

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