GRANNY SHOTS: Jul 2024 rebalance +8 adds/-10 deletes. SMID Granny Shots +23 adds/-25 deletes. July Super and Sleeper Grannies. WEBINAR WED!!! Array ( [cookie] => 952213-ad3e7d-97759e-d8fd9a-6206a1 [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 0 [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

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• Granny Shots July Quarterly rebalance today
• Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper Grannies
• Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper SMID Grannies
• See below for adds and deletes

To download the slide deck for our Granny Shots Webinar, please click here.

GRANNY SHOTS: July 2024 Rebalance

This note is focused on the quarterly rebalance of Granny Shots, and also the updated list of Super and Sleeper Grannies. We view Granny Shots as a core portfolio of stocks and the portfolio is adjusted to reflect seasonal and structural changes:

• For our Large-Cap Granny Shots Portfolio:
  The additions:  AMGN 5.66% , CL -0.05% , EMR -1.25% , IR -0.37% , LDOS 0.32% , SPGI 0.45% , VRTX 0.48% , WMB 1.44%
  The deletions: CMG -3.77% , COP -0.62% , CRM -0.19% , DECK 1.29% , EOG -0.77% , FANG -2.39% , MPC -0.76% , NOW 1.24% , ODFL 5.12% , PSX -0.63%
• For our SMID Granny Shots Portfolio:
  The additions:  ACLS -0.88% , ADMA 0.92% , AIR 1.14% , AVPT 0.86% , BPMC 1.50% , CFB 0.06% , CVLT 0.44% , DAKT -0.39% , DNTH 1.00% , FORM -1.04% , IBCP 0.59% , LNG 1.34% , MCBS 0.13% , MIRM 0.62% , MNKD 1.25% , NRIX 1.88% , PI -0.10% , RNA 1.50% , SPNS -0.13% , TBBK 0.40% , TGTX 2.31% , UCTT 0.75% , VECO -0.71%
  The deletions: AVAV 0.37% , AYI 0.31% , DASH -1.35% , DFH 1.57% , ELF -1.00% , ENV, FSS 0.29% , GBX 0.09% , GMS 0.61% , HCI 0.10% , HIBB, HUBS 0.59% , IBP 1.34% , KOP -0.94% , NEU 0.12% , NOV 8.44% , NPK -0.55% , OVV -1.08% , PLAB 0.04% , REX -0.62% , SEMR -0.43% , SHAK -0.68% , TEX 0.87% , TPL 1.31% , WING -0.50%
• There are a lot of moving parts in a rebalance and these are both on style changes and seasonally attractive industry groups. We don’t necessarily want to focus on these as stand alone factors, but the industry groups are shown below.
• YTD Granny Shots is up 1.97% (outperforming by +197bp vs S&P 500). YTD SMID Granny Shots is up 11.89% (outperforming by +1,189bp vs Russell 2500). This is tracking to be one of the strongest years for Granny Shots. Grannies have outperformed every single year since inception in January 2019.
• We know many do not want to buy a 34 stock list. So we have launched Super and Sleeper Grannies:
  – Top 5 “most attractive” are Super Grannies
  – Bottom 5 “least attractive” are Sleeper Grannies
  – We refresh these lists the third Wed of every month

For our Large-Cap Granny Shots Portfolio:

• Top 5 tactical buys aka “Super Grannies”
  – Amazon Inc (AMZN -2.52% )
  – Alphabet Inc (GOOGL -7.19% ) <– carry over
  – Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON 0.36% )
  – Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX 0.48% )
  – S&P Global Inc (SPGI 0.45% )
• Bottom 5 “Sleeper Grannies” are:
  – Zscaler Inc (ZS -0.49% ) <– carry over
  – Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI 2.76% )
  – Netflix Inc (NFLX -0.34% )
  – Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD -10.30% )
  – Oracle Corp (ORCL 1.64% )

For our SMID Granny Shots Portfolio:

• Top 5 tactical buys aka “Super SMID Grannies”
  – TopBuild Corp (BLD 0.83% )
  – Agilysys Inc (AGYS -0.11% ) <– carry over
  – FormFactor Inc (FORM -1.04% )
  – Applovin Corp (APP -2.30% )
  – Bancorp Inc (TBBK 0.40% )
• Bottom 5 “Sleeper SMID Grannies” are:
  – CarGurus Inc (CARG 0.51% )
  – Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG 1.34% )
  – Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC 1.50% )
  – Dianthus Therapeutics Inc (DNTH 1.00% )
  – Metrocity Bankshares Inc (MCBS 0.13% )

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REBALANCE GRANNY SHOTS: +8 adds, (-10 deletes). YTD outperformance +197bps

Today is the July quarterly rebalance of our Granny Shots portfolio.

8 rebalance additions are:

AMGN 5.66% , CL -0.05% , EMR -1.25% , IR -0.37% , LDOS 0.32% , SPGI 0.45% , VRTX 0.48% , WMB 1.44%

• Amgen Inc (AMGN 5.66% )
• Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL -0.05% )
• Emerson Electric Co (EMR -1.25% )
• Ingersoll-Rand Inc (IR -0.37% )
• Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS 0.32% )
• S&P Global Inc (SPGI 0.45% )
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX 0.48% )
• Williams Cos Inc (WMB 1.44% )

Below are the 2-year stock charts for the 8 additions

10 rebalance deletions are:

• CMG -3.77% , COP -0.62% , CRM -0.19% , DECK 1.29% , EOG -0.77% , FANG -2.39% , MPC -0.76% , NOW 1.24% , ODFL 5.12% , PSX -0.63%

Think about Granny Shots as a “core portfolio” that we rebalance every quarter. The Granny Shots is a list of our core stock holdings, using 7 thematic/quantitative portfolios and is designed to identify long-term EPS growers. Since inception in 2019, Granny Shots has outperformed every year:

• 2019 +879bp –> great year
• 2020 +3,015bp –> great year
• 2021 +392bp –> good year
• 2022 +395bp–> good year
• 2023 +440bp–> good year
• 2024 +197bp–> great start

REBALANCE SMID GRANNY SHOTS: +23 adds, (-25 deletes). YTD outperformance +1189 bps

We introduced our Granny Shots 5 years ago (exact date Jan 10, 2019). Over the past 5 years, Granny Shots, our core portfolio recommendation, have beaten S&P 500 every year. Last December, we upgraded Small-caps to be the #1 recommendation in our 2024 year-ahead outlook. Many of our clients asked us for a SMID version of our Granny Shots. And here you go:

• The new SMID granny shots follow the same methodology as our “traditional” Granny Shots
• We believe the SMID granny shots could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds as well, similar to our “traditional” Granny Shots.
• The SMID granny shots were selected from a universe consisting of 2,492 small and mid-cap stocks.
• One key difference between our regular Granny Shots and SMID Granny Shots is that we used Asset Turnover as a key criterion in stock selection for the SMID list. The SMID Granny Shots are those with higher asset turnover rates vs their peers, or the ones that demonstrate a clear trend of improvement regarding the conversion of assets to sales.

23 rebalance additions are:

• ACLS -0.88% , ADMA 0.92% , AIR 1.14% , AVPT 0.86% , BPMC 1.50% , CFB 0.06% , CVLT 0.44% , DAKT -0.39% , DNTH 1.00% , FORM -1.04% , IBCP 0.59% , LNG 1.34% , MCBS 0.13% , MIRM 0.62% , MNKD 1.25% , NRIX 1.88% , PI -0.10% , RNA 1.50% , SPNS -0.13% , TBBK 0.40% , TGTX 2.31% , UCTT 0.75% , VECO -0.71%

25 rebalance deletions are:

• AVAV 0.37% , AYI 0.31% , DASH -1.35% , DFH 1.57% , ELF -1.00% , ENV, FSS 0.29% , GBX 0.09% , GMS 0.61% , HCI 0.10% , HIBB, HUBS 0.59% , IBP 1.34% , KOP -0.94% , NEU 0.12% , NOV 8.44% , NPK -0.55% , OVV -1.08% , PLAB 0.04% , REX -0.62% , SEMR -0.43% , SHAK -0.68% , TEX 0.87% , TPL 1.31% , WING -0.50%

SUPER GRANNIES: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper + 5 Super SMIDS and 5 Sleeper SMIDS

“Super Grannies” (long) and “Sleeper Grannies” are derived from our core stock list of 34 ideas called “Granny Shots”

• The rationale is many clients ask us to narrow this list of 34 names down to a list of “fresh money” ideas.
• We established a criteria of 4 factors to narrow the list to tactical buys:
  – fundamentals using DQM model managed by “tireless Ken”
  – Momentum rating
  – technical strength measured by Price >20 DMA, 20 DMA vs 200 DMA and combos
  – Mark Newton’s judgement on technical outlook

For our Large-Cap Granny Shots Portfolio:

• Top 5 tactical buys aka “Super Grannies”
  – Amazon Inc (AMZN -2.52% )
  – Alphabet Inc (GOOGL -7.19% ) <– carry over
  – Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON 0.36% )
  – Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX 0.48% )
  – S&P Global Inc (SPGI 0.45% )
• Bottom 5 “Sleeper Grannies” are:
  – Zscaler Inc (ZS -0.49% ) <– carry over
  – Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI 2.76% )
  – Netflix Inc (NFLX -0.34% )
  – Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD -10.30% )
  – Oracle Corp (ORCL 1.64% )

For our SMID Granny Shots Portfolio:

• Top 5 tactical buys aka “Super SMID Grannies”
  – TopBuild Corp (BLD 0.83% )
  – Agilysys Inc (AGYS -0.11% ) <– carry over
  – FormFactor Inc (FORM -1.04% )
  – Applovin Corp (APP -2.30% )
  – Bancorp Inc (TBBK 0.40% )
• Bottom 5 “Sleeper SMID Grannies” are:
  – CarGurus Inc (CARG 0.51% )
  – Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG 1.34% )
  – Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC 1.50% )
  – Dianthus Therapeutics Inc (DNTH 1.00% )
  – Metrocity Bankshares Inc (MCBS 0.13% )

TECHNICALS ON 5 SUPER GRANNY SHOTS: By Mark Newton

Alphabet (GOOGL-$183.92) – GOOGL remains one of the more technically attractive names within the “Magnificent 7” following its 16% rally after it broke back out to new all-time highs in April.

-Its pullback over the last three out of four trading days has brought the stock near meaningful uptrend line support where this should stabilize (176-182).

-DeMark’s counter-trend exhaustion indicators suggest another 6-8 weeks of gains might be possible before any real consolidation gets underway.

-Rally above initial upside resistance $192 arguably should lead to $199 without much trouble. Furthermore, intermediate-term targets based on the high to low range from 2021 projects up to $220-$225.

-Near-term weakness should be held near initial support at $176. However, structural intermediate-term support lies at $154, and until breached, any larger pullback in GOOGL in the months ahead would be thought to make this stock more technically appealing.

Amazon (AMZN-$193.02) – Successful breakout above 2021 highs helps to keep AMZN in good shape technically speaking.

Two weeks of consolidation post breakout to new all-time highs makes this attractive to buy dips with ample support near former April-May highs at $188-192.

Barring a move back lower under $188 on a weekly close, minor consolidation makes AMZN attractive from a risk-reward standpoint.

Rally back to $212 looks possible initially and would require a weekly close back under $166 to avoid this stock.

Axon Enterprises (AXON-$319.43) – Minor consolidation since February looks complete given this past week’s push up to multi-week highs.

Movement back to new all-time highs appears underway and little resistance above $330 until near $376.

The consolidation from early this year remains part of an ongoing uptrend, and now looks to be giving way to re-acceleration back to new highs. AXON remains quite bullish technically.

Upside targets lie near 330 initially and then 345 on gains into August.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals- (VRTX-$488.98) – Push back to new highs into July helps to resolve the one-month consolidation as part of VRTX’s ongoing uptrend.

Despite overbought conditions, VRTX shows no evidence of any trend deterioration and has managed to show improving technical follow-through despite Healthcare having underperformed SPX in recent months.

VRTX has shown some of the best performance of any of the 64 members within the SPDR S&P Healthcare ETF (XLV) having returned 24.05% over the last three months, making this the 5^th best performer of all 64 names.

Upside resistance lies initially at $522-523 and I believe movement above this level should lead to $559.

S&P Global (SPGI- $488.79) – SPGI is in the process of pushing back to new all-time highs this week, exceeding former peaks made back in 2021 at $484.21.

While momentum is short-term stretched, the technical structure has improved materially with this week’s breakout.

Rallies to $520-$525 look possible in the near-term, and following consolidation, a push up to $550 with intermediate-term targets near $607 can’t be ruled out.

Only weekly closes back down under $407 would serve to postpone its rally, and any near-term consolidation after this sharp breakout should offer attractive risk/reward opportunities to buy dips near $461, which approximates highs made in early 2024.

TECHNICALS ON 5 SUPER SMID GRANNY SHOTS: By Mark Newton

TopBuild (BLD-$465.48) – BLD is one of the more attractive of the Homebuilder names maintaining short-term and intermediate-term bullish uptrends.

Its push back to new all-time highs over the last two weeks follows a three-month period of mild consolidation that failed to do much technical damage.

Interest rates pulling back sharply across the curve looks to be positive for Homebuilders, and this remains the top-ranked technical stock across the Home building and construction names within Granny Shots.

Upside targets could materialize near $528, representing the 1.618x projection of BLD’s rally from 2018 into November 2021, when measured from November 2022 lows.

Agilysys (AGYS-$108.95) – Breakout of the 15-month Cup and Handle pattern on heavy volume helped AGYS push back to new all-time highs two months ago which was very constructive for its larger pattern.

Short-term breakout last week of May highs has helped near-term acceleration continue, and weekly momentum indicators are not yet overbought.

Short-term technical targets lie near $118-120 while intermediate-term projections lie at $130.

Volume spiked to help confirm this technical progress in May, and the act of having rallied back to new all-time highs makes this quite attractive.

Form Factor (FORM-$62.16) – FORM’s May 2024 rally over 2021 peaks has helped this to accelerate and keeps the technical structure quite bullish on an intermediate-term basis.

Despite momentum having reached overbought levels, no evidence of any technical deterioration has appeared in recent weeks. FORM continues to move higher in a stair-stepping fashion since May’s breakout and volume has been supportive of gains.

Movement up to $67 looks initially likely and then pullbacks should make this attractive for intermediate-term gains to $85.

From an Elliott perspective, the entire 2021-2022 decline appeared like an ABC-type corrective pattern before the push back to new highs. Given that the initial rally from 2012-2021 lasted nine years, even a 38.2% time-based alternative retracement of this first rally should carry FORM higher into 2025.

Applovin (APP-$86.53) – Minor consolidation since May looks to be giving way to an upside breakout given the progress of the last couple weeks.

Movement back over $88.50 should have little resistance until $93 and then a push back to challenge all-time highs from 2021 just over $116 looks possible.

Steep gains over the last 18 months have helped APP recover more than 60% of its former losses on relatively higher than average volume, particularly in 2024.

Given that minor consolidation from May has helped to lessen APP’s overbought status, a push back to new 2024 highs should help this intermediate-term rally continue.

The Bancorp (TBBK-$48.16) – TBBK has just begun to accelerate back to new all-time highs given a breakout in Regional Banks this past week.

The long-term structure looks quite appealing given a 2023 breakout above its 2007 peaks followed by choppy consolidation into 2024. The recent push higher in the last few weeks has helped to jumpstart TBBK’s intermediate-term momentum and can allow for a push to the high-$50s.

Despite daily momentum being overbought, the act of its volatile swings since 2022 have helped monthly momentum stay neutral, not overbought, despite this past month’s surge to new highs. TBBK’s pattern over the last 20 years remains quite attractive technically and should allow for further intermediate-term gains into late August/early September with initial targets found near $58.

Key incoming data July 2024:

• 7/1 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 7/1 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 7/2 9:30 AM ET: Powell, Lagarde, Campos Neto Speak in Sintra Tame
• 7/2 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 7/3 8:30 AM ET: May Trade Balance Tame
• 7/3 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 7/3 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Services PMI Tame
• 7/3 10:00 AM ET: May F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 7/3 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
• 7/5 8:30 AM ET: Jun Jobs Report Tame
• 7/8 11:00 AM ET: Jun NY Fed 1yr Inflation Exp Tame
• 7/9 6:00 AM ET: Jun Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 7/9 9:00 AM ET: Jun F Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
• 7/9 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to Senate Banking Tame
• 7/10 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to House Financial Services Tame
• 7/11 8:30 AM ET: Jun CPI Tame
• 7/12 8:30 AM ET: Jun PPI Mixed
• 7/12 10:00 AM ET: Jul P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 7/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 7/15 12:00 PM ET: Fed’s Powell Interviewed by David Rubenstein Tame
• 7/16 8:30 AM ET: Jun Retail Sales Data Tame
• 7/16 10:00 AM ET: Jul NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 7/17 9:00 AM ET: Jul M Manheim Used vehicle index
• 7/17 2:00 PM ET: Jul Fed Releases Beige Book
• 7/18 8:30 AM ET: Jul Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 7/18 4:00 PM ET: May Net TIC Flows
• 7/22 8:30 AM ET: Jun Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 7/23 10:00 AM ET: Jun Existing Home Sales
• 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Services PMI
• 7/24 10:00 AM ET: Jun New Home Sales
• 7/25 8:30 AM ET: 2QA 2024 GDP
• 7/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun P Durable Goods Orders
• 7/26 8:30 AM ET: Jun PCE Deflator
• 7/26 10:00 AM ET: Jul F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 7/29 10:30 AM ET: Jul Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 7/30 9:00 AM ET: May S&P CoreLogic CS home price
• 7/30 10:00 AM ET: Jul Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 7/30 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings
• 7/31 8:30 AM ET: 2Q ECI QoQ
• 7/31 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Decision

Key incoming data June 2024:

• 6/3 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 6/3 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 6/5 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 6/5 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Services PMI Tame
• 6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Nonfarm Productivity Tame
• 6/6 8:30 AM ET: Apr Trade Balance Tame
• 6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
• 6/7 8:30 AM ET: May Jobs Report Hot
• 6/7 9:00 AM ET: May F Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
• 6/10 11:00 AM ET: May NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 6/11 6:00 AM ET: May Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 6/12 8:30 AM ET: May CPI Tame
• 6/12 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Decision Tame
• 6/13 8:30 AM ET: May PPI Tame
• 6/14 10:00 AM ET: Jun P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 6/17 8:30 AM ET: Jun Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 6/18 8:30 AM ET: May Retail Sales Data Tame
• 6/18 9:00 AM ET: Jun M Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
• 6/18 4:00 PM ET: Apr Net TIC Flows Tame
• 6/19 10:00 AM ET: Jun NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 6/20 8:30 AM ET: Jun Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Services PMI Mixed
• 6/21 10:00 AM ET: May Existing Home Sales Tame
• 6/24 10:30 AM ET: Jun Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame
• 6/25 8:30 AM ET: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
• 6/25 9:00 AM ET: Apr S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 6/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 6/26 10:00 AM ET: May New Home Sales Tame
• 6/27 8:30 AM ET: 1Q T 2024 GDP Tame
• 6/27 10:00 AM ET: May P Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 6/28 8:30 AM ET: May PCE Deflator Tame
• 6/28 10:00 AM ET: Jun F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame

Key incoming data May 2024:

• 5/1 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 5/1 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Decision Dovish
• 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Nonfarm Productivity Tame
• 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar Trade Balance Tame
• 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Unit Labor Costs Mixed
• 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 5/3 8:30 AM ET: Apr Jobs Report Tame
• 5/3 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 5/3 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Services PMI Tame
• 5/7 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
• 5/10 10:00 AM ET: May P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Mixed
• 5/13 11:00 AM ET: Apr NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 5/14 6:00 AM ET: Apr Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 5/14 8:30 AM ET: Apr PPI Mixed
• 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr CPI Tame
• 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Retail Sales Data Tame
• 5/15 8:30 AM ET: May Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 5/15 10:00 AM ET: May NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 5/15 4:00 PM ET: Mar Net TIC Flows Tame
• 5/16 8:30 AM ET: May Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 5/17 10:00 AM ET: May M Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
• 5/22 10:00 AM ET: Apr Existing Home Sales Tame
• 5/22 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
• 5/23 8:30 AM ET: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
• 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 5/23 10:00 AM ET: Apr New Home Sales Tame
• 5/24 8:30 AM ET: Apr P Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 5/24 10:00 AM ET: May F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 5/28 9:00 AM ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 5/28 10:00 AM ET: May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 5/28 10:30 AM ET: May Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame
• 5/29 2:00 PM ET: May Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 5/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q S 2024 GDP Tame
• 5/31 8:30 AM ET: Apr PCE Deflator Tame

Key incoming data April 2024:

• 4/01 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/01 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing Mixed
• 4/02 10:00 am ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 4/03 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 4/03 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM Services Tame
• 4/05 8:30 am ET: Mar Jobs Report Hot
• 4/05 9:00 am ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 4/10 8:30 am ET: Mar CPI Hot
• 4/10 2pm ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
• 4/11 8:30 am ET: Mar PPI Tame
• 4/12 10:00 am ET: Apr P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 4/15 8:30 am ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 4/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Retail Sales Data Mixed
• 4/15 10:00 am ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 4/16 8:30 am ET: Apr New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 4/17 9:00 am ET: Apr Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 4/17 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 4/18 8:30 am ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 4/22 8:30 am ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Survey Tame
• 4/23 9:45 am ET: Apr P S&P Global PMI Tame
• 4/25 8:30 am ET: 1QA 2024 GDP Tame
• 4/26 8:30 am ET: Mar PCE Tame
• 4/29 10:30 am ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 4/30 8:30 am ET: 1Q ECI Employment Cost Index Mixed
• 4/30 9:00 am ET: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data March 2024:

• 3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Tame
• 3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Services Tame
• 3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services Committee Dovish
• 3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
• 3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Dovish
• 3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs Report Mixed
• 3/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPI Slightly Hot (as anticipated)
• 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPI Mixed
• 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales Data Tame
• 3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMI Tame
• 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDP Tame
• 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCE Tame

Key incoming data February 2024:

• 2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Mixed
• 2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January Final Tame 
• 2/01 10am ET January ISM Manufacturing Mixed
• 2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs Report Hot
• 2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Final Tame 
• 2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January Final Tame 
• 2/05 10am ET January ISM Services Tame 
• 2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Final Mixed
• 2/09 CPI Revisions Tame 
• 2/13 8:30am ET January CPI  Mixed
• 2/14 PPI Revisions Tame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey  Tame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales Data Tame 
• 2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame 
• 2/16 8:30am ET January PPI Mixed
• 2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
• 2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February Prelim Tame 
• 2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-Month Tame 
• 2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
• 2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February Prelim Tame 
• 2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDP Tame
• 2/29 8:30am ET January PCE Tame

Key incoming data January 2024:

• 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
• 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame 
• 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame 
• 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
• 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame 
• 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
• 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame 
• 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame 
• 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI Details Suggest Tame
• 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI Tame 
• 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
• 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
• 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data Strong
• 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month Tame 
• 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index Mixed
• 1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
• 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim Tame 
• 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim Mixed
• 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP Mixed
• 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE Tame 
• 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame 
• 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame 
• 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame 
• 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December Mixed
• 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Tame 

Key incoming data December 2023:

• 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
• 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
• 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
• 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
• 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
• 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
• 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
• 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame
• 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
• 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame
• 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
• 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
• 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
• 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
• 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
• 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
• 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
• 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
• 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November 2023:

• 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame
• 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
• 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
• 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
• 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
• 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
• 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
• 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
• 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
• 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey  Tame
• 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
• 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
• 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
• 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
• 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
• 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
• 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October 2023:

• 10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
•  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
•  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
•  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
• 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
•  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
•  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
•  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
•  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
•  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
•  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
•  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
• 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
• 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
•  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
•  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
•  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
•  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
•  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
•  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
•  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September 2023:

•  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
•  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
•  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
•  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
•   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
•  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
•  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
•  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
•  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
•  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
•  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decision Market saw Hawkish
•  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
•  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
•  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
•  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
•  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August 2023:

• 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
• 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
• 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
• 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
• 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
• 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
• 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
• 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey Mixed 
• 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity Survey Neutral
• 8/16 2pm ET FOMC Minutes Mixed
• 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
• 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug Prelim Weak
• 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
• 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July 2023:

• 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
• 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
• 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
• 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
• 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
• 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
• 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
• 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
• 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Index in-line
• 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
• 7/28 8:30am ET June PCE Tame
• 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost Index Tame
• 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from June 2023:

• 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
• 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
• 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
• 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
• 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
• 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decision Tame
• 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
• 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May 2023:

• 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
• 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
• 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
• 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
• 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
• 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
• 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
• 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
• 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
• 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
• 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
• 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings