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STRATEGY: USA cases falling so rapidly, Europe could exceed USA in daily cases…
COVID-19 case data for Sunday was positive, with daily cases of 36,050, down ~5,000 from last Sunday and continuing the streak of a steep decline in daily cases. I think something interesting may evolve in the weeks and months ahead. I think it is entirely possible that USA COVID-19 cases crash to sub-10,000 in September. Daily cases have been falling 7,500 to 10,000 vs 7D ago, and if this pace continues, the US will see cases below 10,000 in early September.
At that level, nationally, daily cases would be <30 per 1mm, a level that would match the level NYC has seen since June. In other words, <30 cases per day is a “safe” level of spread. This remains a disease spreading, but at a vastly slower pace. And at that level, the US might be considered one of the safest nations (on a COVID-19 basis). Consider how this narrative has evolved since March:
Region case count…
Europe US
– Feb EARLY DAYS Worse
– Mar US surge Worse
– April US peak Worse
– June US resurge Worse
– July US peak Worse
– Aug Europe resurge Worse
– Sept US crash Worse
So it is possible that we could see a flip in the next few weeks, where Europe will soon have more cases daily than USA. In fact, Spain and France, on a per capita basis (daily cases per 1mm) is running ahead of the US.
Source: Johns Hopkins
Europe overall is seeing a resurgence in cases and ~30,000 per day (includes Russia), which means we could soon see Europe surpass US in total overall daily cases. In fact, this week, we think it is likely we see US cases fall below 30,000 sometime this week.
Source: Johns Hopkins
US has more counties with high prevalence (>12,500 cases per 1mm residents) = akin to herd immunity
Foremost, the explosion in cases in Europe is not a good thing. It means there really is no such thing as “closing economy” and eradicating COVID-19. In fact, Europe’s renewed outbreak is a strong argument for the notion of an infection breakpoint.
If we look at total cases per 1mm residents, the US towers over Europe. And Sweden towers over Europe.
– guess which 2 countries are seeing a sharp drop in cases?
– Sweden and USA
Source: Johns Hopkins
This map kind of says it all. This is color-coded and “green” = good, is where daily cases are down vs 7D ago. The red is where daily cases are rising. Notice how Europe is universally worsening?
Source: Johns Hopkins
The US is soon becoming one of the safest places in the World. And if this is true, capital will also want to seek the US –> stocks rise further.
White House announces FDA grants EAU, Emergency Authorization Use, for convalescent plasma
The FDA granted EUA to convalescent plasma. This is an “old trick” and was used to treat diseases prior to the development of vaccines (think Spanish flu, etc.). And it is good to see this formally approved, as it gives healthcare providers additional options for treating patients.
According to Alex Azar, US Secretary of HHS:
“The data we gathered suggest the patients who are treated early in their disease course (within 3 days of being diagnosed) with plasma containing high-level of antibodies benefited the most from treatment. We saw about a 35% better survival in the patients who benefit most from the treatment which were the patients who were under 80 and who were not on artificial respiration.”
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/23/health/covid-19-convalescent-plasma-eua-white-house/index.html
And before anyone declares this to be a mere political stunt, we can see that Dr. Scott Gottlieb, emphasized this was a decision by the FDA staff alone — it was their decision.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1297669083874430976
POINT 1: Sunday off to a positive start for COVID-19, as daily cases come in at 36,050
Daily COVID-19 cases came in at 36,050 which is better than the 41,739 seen the prior Sunday (7D ago) and continues the trend of continued organic improvement in daily COVID-19 cases. As this chart below highlights (looks at the last 5 weeks lining up by day of week), we continue to see a sustained improvement in daily cases.
Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat
The distortion from CA is behind us now. As we will stop showing the “ex-CA” data soon. Texas disclosed its backlog for the past 3 days, so we adjusted this data accordingly.
Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat
Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat
POINT 2: COVID-19 in full retreat, sub-20,000 cases within a few weeks possible…
COVID-19 is in full retreat in the US. Given the rapid pace of case declines, the US could see cases below 20,000 within 10-14 days. In fact, as this time series shows, it is entirely possible we are at 10,000-12,000 cases by the end of August.
Already, COVID-19 daily cases are down vs 7D in 66% of the US. This is the highest percentage ever and is rising.
Source: Johns Hopkins
And about 59% of the US has a case prevalence of >12,500 per 1 million.
– Assuming that actual infections are 10X “confirmed” cases, this implies 59% of the US has an infection rate of 12.5% or higher
– As we wrote on previous commentaries, if 50% of the US has some sort of T-cell immunity (even Dr. Fauci posited this), then a 12.5% infection rate + 50% T-cell, is within the range of 60%-70% infection level that allows some herd immunity
– Thus, we see 12,500 cases per 1mm as a key level
– Currently, about 59% of the US counties are at this level, based on the above assumptions
Source: Johns Hopkins
ABSOLUTE LEVEL: Key is getting daily cases per 1mm <30… only 10% of US at this level…
But ultimately, the key is controlling this infection. And if herd immunity is reached, we should see daily cases crash.
– A controlled level is ~30 daily cases per 1mm, or <9,900 in the US overall
– Only 10% of the US has daily cases below this level, but rising
– But 21% of the US has daily cases <50, which is a good level.
Source: Johns Hopkins
POINT 3: The US is safer than Europe… yup
ABSOLUTE LEVEL: On “daily cases per 1mm,” US and Latin America are the highest, but by end of month, US could be lower than Europe…
Taking a step back and looking at a common-size measure, or daily cases per 1mm, the US is still one of the hotspots, next to Latin America. This is changing rapidly, as the US is seeing cases fall sharply, and as we noted, within two weeks, could be sub-10,000 cases.
Source: Johns Hopkins
And overall, COVID-19 is “well controlled” (<30 cases per 1mm daily) in 62% of the World. As this chart highlights, it was 85% prior to mid-July. But the outbreak in India has caused this figure to fall from 85% to 62%.
Source: Johns Hopkins
In fact, as this quilt below highlights, India + Pakistan may soon surpass Latin America as the region with the highest number of daily cases. The US has dropped steadily, and could potentially fall below Europe within a few weeks.
Source: Johns Hopkins
