5 signs the painful "de-leveraging" process might be nearing an end.

VIDEO: We discuss 5 reasons we believe the painful de-leveraging process might be nearing an end

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:29).

As many are aware, we have viewed the bleeding of stocks in the past two weeks as part of a painful de-leveraging process. This stems from the dual growing risks of (i) disappointment around inflation trends and (ii) growing geopolitical risk. And as such, this is causing investors to de-risk after a strong first 3 months of 2024.

• There are 5 reasons we believe this de-leveraging might be closer to ending:
  1. Spot VIX could be moving below 18, coupled with US yields flattening
  2. VIX term structure (4M less 1M futures) is uninverting
  3. Equity declines accelerating to downside as 5-day rate of change -3.6%
  4. CBOE Equity Put Call ratio hit 1.13, recently sign of tradeable low
  5. The cycle studies by Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat, show potential low in 1-3 trading days
• The last time the VIX term structure (4M less 1M) inverted, then uninverted, was March 2023 and that represented a major low. The uninversion shows markets see lower probabilities of a major high volatility event in the near term.
• De-leveraging likely accelerated recently as the speed of stock declines accelerated today. The 5-day rate of change of -3.6% was seen 7 times since October 2022:
  – 5 of 7 times, this was a tradable low, immediately
  – 2 of 7 times, further declines ahead
  – Feb 2023 and Sep 2023 were those instances
  – difference today is the VIX term structure is “un-inverting”
• The US Equity-put call ratio shows investors seeking downside protection (buying more puts) and a 1.13 reading is very high. Since October 2022:
  – 6 of 7 times was a tradable low
  – sole exception was Sept 13, 2023
  – but recall, there was a much larger move in the spot VIX
  – and Fed was still hawkish
• Of course, the greatest risk remains an escalating conflict between Israel-Iran. In the short term, this will likely create downside risks for equities and other cyclical assets. Why? Because of the uncertainty for how large this conflict could encompass. This is similar to the perceived widening risks initially at the Russia invasion of the Ukraine.

Bottom line: We see higher probabilities that de-leveraging might be closer to ending

Equities had a strong first quarter 2024, so the fact that stocks are consolidating and even drifting lower is not entirely a surprise. The difference in our take, at this time, is that we do not see a larger decline ahead. This is also consistent with the view held by Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy.

• The fundamental case for stocks in 2024 remains intact, supported by strengthening earnings and the $6 trillion of cash on the sidelines.

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36 Granny Shot Ideas and 44 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 4/16. Full stock list here -> Click here

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Key incoming data April:

• 4/01 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
• 4/01 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ManufacturingMixed
• 4/02 10:00 am ET: Feb JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
• 4/03 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMITame
• 4/03 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ServicesTame
• 4/05 8:30 am ET: Mar Jobs ReportHot
• 4/05 9:00 am ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
• 4/10 8:30 am ET: Mar CPIHot
• 4/10 2pm ET: Mar FOMC Meeting MinutesTame
• 4/11 8:30 am ET: Mar PPITame
• 4/12 10:00 am ET: Apr P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 4/15 8:30 am ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
• 4/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Retail Sales DataMixed
• 4/15 10:00 am ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
• 4/16 8:30 am ET: Apr New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
• 4/17 9:00 am ET: Apr Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
• 4/17 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame
• 4/18 8:30 am ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame
• 4/22 8:30 am ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Survey
• 4/23 9:45 am ET: Apr P S&P Global PMI
• 4/25 8:30 am ET: 1QA 2024 GDP
• 4/26 8:30 am ET: Mar PCE
• 4/29 10:30 am ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey
• 4/30 9:00 am ET: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS home price
• 4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation

Key incoming data March:

• 3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
• 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ManufacturingTame
• 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMITame
• 3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ServicesTame
• 3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services CommitteeDovish
• 3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
• 3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame
• 3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityTame
• 3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
• 3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban AffairsDovish
• 3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs ReportMixed
• 3/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPISlightly Hot (as anticipated)
• 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPIMixed
• 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales DataTame
• 3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
• 3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
• 3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
• 3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
• 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate DecisionDovish
• 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame
• 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMITame
• 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
• 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
• 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
• 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDPTame
• 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCETame

Key incoming data February:

• 2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Mixed
• 2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January Final Tame 
• 2/01 10am ET January ISM Manufacturing Mixed
• 2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs Report Hot
• 2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Final Tame 
• 2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January Final Tame 
• 2/05 10am ET January ISM Services Tame 
• 2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Final Mixed
• 2/09 CPI Revisions Tame 
• 2/13 8:30am ET January CPI  Mixed
• 2/14 PPI RevisionsTame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales DataTame 
• 2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index Tame 
• 2/16 8:30am ET January PPIMixed
• 2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame 
• 2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February PrelimTame 
• 2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-MonthTame 
• 2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting MinutesTame 
• 2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February Prelim Tame 
• 2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
• 2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
• 2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDPTame
• 2/29 8:30am ET January PCETame

Key incoming data January:

• 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
• 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame 
• 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame 
• 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
• 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame 
• 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
• 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame 
• 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame 
• 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI Details Suggest Tame
• 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI Tame 
• 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
• 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
• 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data Strong
• 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month Tame 
• 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index Mixed
• 1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
• 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim Tame 
• 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim Mixed
• 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP Mixed
• 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE Tame 
• 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame 
• 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame 
• 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame 
• 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December Mixed
• 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Tame 

Key incoming data December

• 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
• 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
• 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
• 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
• 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
• 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
• 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
• 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame
• 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
• 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame
• 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
• 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
• 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
• 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
• 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
• 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
• 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
• 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
• 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November

• 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame
• 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
• 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
• 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
• 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
• 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
• 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
• 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
• 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
• 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey  Tame
• 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
• 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
• 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
• 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
• 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
• 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
• 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October

• 10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
•  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
•  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
•  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
• 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
•  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
•  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
•  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
•  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
•  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
•  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
•  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
• 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
• 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
•  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
•  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
•  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
•  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
•  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
•  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
•  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September

•  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
•  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
•  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
•  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
•   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
•  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
•  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
•  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
•  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
•  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
•  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decisionMarket saw Hawkish
•  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
•  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
•  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
•  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
•  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August

• 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
• 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
• 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
• 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
• 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
• 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
• 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
• 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey Mixed 
• 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity SurveyNeutral
• 8/16 2pm ET FOMC Minutes Mixed
• 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
• 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug Prelim Weak
• 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
• 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July

• 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
• 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
• 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
• 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
• 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
• 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
• 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
• 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
• 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Indexin-line
• 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
• 7/28 8:30am ET June PCETame
• 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost IndexTame
• 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame

Key data from June

• 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
• 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
• 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
• 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
• 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
• 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decisionTame
• 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
• 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May

• 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
• 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
• 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
• 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
• 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
• 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
• 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
• 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
• 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
• 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
• 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
• 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings