2H2023 Technical Outlook Array ( [cookie] => 1b0766-f2f17f-2e3db1-5c3328-2062b8 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 20326 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
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Conclusions:
- Gains of 10-15% more are likely in 2H 2023 for US Equities - Raising my technical target from 4500 to 4700 - Recent broadening out in market breadth has not yet been followed by an equal broadening out in bullish sentiment.
- Risk-on Sectors still preferred - Technology and Industrials are intermediate-term bullish, but likely require consolidation into fall of 2023. My other two 2023 picks for outperformance discussed in January, Energy and Healthcare, likely should make a comeback in 2H 2023.
- Heightened chance of consolidation from late July into September, and also Mid-November-December this year, so gains likely won’t be uninterrupted. Important to keep a close eye out for negative momentum/breadth divergence, complacency/speculation, and sharp increase in Defensive, which tend to occur ahead of market corrections.
- US Dollar index likely pulls back to new 2023 lows given less hawkish monetary policy than BOE and/or ECB, and/or possibility of FOMC hikes causing economic weakness
- Commodities likely to have a much better Q3/Q4 than first half of the year. Precious metals and Energy have a good chance of snapping back following a difficult first half 2023.
- Emerging markets also should strengthen in 2H. India leads the way, but expect a continued rebound out of Latin America, while China should also begin to rally.
- Treasuries are likely to strengthen in the weeks/months to come. Yields have reached resistance and a pullback to test Spring lows looks likely. However, trends call for yields to rally in 2024.


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