VIDEO: NVDA -6.09% results were good enough in our view. This Friday is Jan Core PCE, which will hopefully be softer than consensus.
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:16).
It’s been a critical week for markets with key earnings announcements alongside economic data.
- A busy week for earnings has drawn focus to both technology leaders
– Yesterday’s AXON -7.48% report showcased stronger-than-anticipated results that propelled the stock upward by a double-digit margin
– As for Nvidia’s announcement, the stock traded roughly flat by the day’s end, but deeper context shows it has historically maintained momentum into its earnings cycle
– Despite already being down nearly 7% in the 8 weeks heading into results, the outcome from Nvidia appears “good enough” for the broader market not to deteriorate on fears of softer tech performance - Broader macro data remain top of mind
– GDP and durable goods reports are set to shape sentiment, especially given persistent growth concerns
– Upcoming core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) will factor into discussions about Federal Reserve policy and whether odds for a nearer-term rate cut might shift
– Though recent data pointed to a growth scare, the potential reintroduction of a dovish stance by the Fed could bolster stocks in the event of lackluster macro trends - Mark Newton notes “BTC likely moves to $62-$65k, but might find initial support near 75k”
– This anticipation of weakness has been attributed to cyclical chart patterns, with continued volatility in store before any meaningful price recovery
– Nonetheless, a strategy of patient holding (“HODLing”) remains a consideration for investors comfortable riding out short-term waves - Maintaining perspective on the market’s path ahead
– After a spate of earnings and early-year macro releases, key tests—like inflation readings—remain
– While we believe caution is warranted, resilience in select energy names, broader technology leadership, and potential policy shifts all highlight the complex backdrop as markets seek direction
Bottom Line: Stay on target.
But the bigger message is that we expect investors to buy the dip. We believe this should be the key takeaway this week. And secondarily, that the market participation is broadening beyond MAG7.
There are six reasons that show 2025 tracking better than our base case:
- Barometer “first 5 days” positive = 82% win-ratio
- Sentiment capitulation on Dec to Jan chop = good
- Inflation tracking “softer” than consensus view
- Fears of “day 1 tariffs” overblown = USD weaker
- Cyclicals leading YTD = risk-on signal
- January barometer “positive” = 89% win-ratio
- January 2025 closed +2.7%. This is the January barometer “as January goes, so goes the year”:
– The January barometer is as follows:
– If January positive:
– Median FY +19%, 89% win-ratio
– If January negative:
– Median FY +0%, 50% win-ratio - The top sector ideas remain:
- Bitcoin
- Small-caps
- Financials
- Industrials
- Technology
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45 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here
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Key incoming data February:
2/3 9:45 AM ET: Jan F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame2/3 10:00 AM ET: Jan ISM Manufacturing PMITame2/4 10:00 AM ET: Dec JOLTS Job OpeningsTame2/4 10:00 AM ET: Dec F Durable Goods OrdersTame2/5 8:30 AM ET: Dec Trade BalanceTame2/5 9:45 AM ET: Jan F S&P Global Services PMITame2/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan ISM Services PMITame2/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Non-Farm ProductivityTame2/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Unit Labor CostsTame2/7 8:30 AM ET: Jan Non-Farm PayrollsTame2/7 9:00 AM ET: Dec F Manheim Used Vehicle indexTame2/7 10:00 AM ET: Feb P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationHot2/10 11:00 AM ET: Jan NY Fed 1yr Inf ExpTame2/11 6:00 AM ET: Jan Small Business Optimism SurveyTame2/12 8:30 AM ET: Jan CPIHot2/13 8:30 AM ET: Jan PPIHot2/14 8:30 AM ET: Jan Retail Sales DataTame2/18 8:30 AM ET: Feb Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame2/18 10:00 AM ET: Feb NAHB Housing Market IndexTame2/18 4:00 PM ET: Dec Net TIC FlowsTame2/19 9:00 AM ET: Jan M Manheim Used Vehicle indexTame2/19 2:00 PM ET: Jan FOMC Meeting MinutesDovish2/20 8:30 AM ET: Feb Philly Fed Business OutlookTame2/21 9:45 AM ET: Feb P S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame2/21 9:45 AM ET: Feb P S&P Global Services PMITame2/21 10:00 AM ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationHot2/21 10:00 AM ET: Jan Existing Home SalesTame2/24 8:30 AM ET: Jan Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame2/24 10:30 AM ET: Feb Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame2/25 9:00 AM ET: Dec S&P CoreLogic CS home priceMixed2/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame2/26 10:00 AM ET: Jan New Home SalesTame- 2/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q S GDP
- 2/27 10:00 AM ET: Jan P Durable Goods Orders
- 2/28 8:30 AM ET: Jan PCE Deflator
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:
