- Special U.S. House election Tuesday
- Congress returns
- ACA action needed
- Jan. 30 new shutdown deadline
Tomorrow there is a special election in Tennessee to fill the vacancy created when Republican Congressman Mark Green left Congress in July. With the Republican’s narrow margin in the House, every vote counts. Currently there are 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats. If somehow the Democrat wins the special, the total will be down to 219Rs to 214Ds. Then in a few weeks, Marjorie Taylor Greene will officially resign, bringing the Republicans down to 218. As bills die on a tie vote, the Republican margin will only be one vote, unlike the Senate there is no tiebreak vote.
Until recently, it was thought this Tennessee seat was a safe Republican district, as in 2024, President Trump won the district by 22 percentage pts. However, polling has shown the race to be very close, and from my days working on campaigns, I know first-hand the challenge created by getting voters to the polls for special elections. Voters just aren’t geared to go to the polls on Dec. 2.
With the strong Democratic showings on Election Day last month, Democrats believe they have a chance in this Republican stronghold. The Republican candidate, Matt Van Epps, went to West Point, served in the military and has recently been part of the current Republican state administration. The Democrat, Aftyn Behn, is a sitting State Senator and is running a well-financed campaign for this historically Republican district.
This election will be a real test as to the president’s popularity in a strong Trump district. Even if the Democratic candidate loses but can hold the margin to single digits, it can be an ominous sign for Republicans defending a narrow majority in the upcoming year’s House elections.
While polling has shown a close race, it is just impossible to get good polling data in a special election. A good poll requires a good sample and identifying likely voters when voter turnout is likely to be very low. Consider also that it’s tough to identify likely voters. Energy is probably the number one factor in voter turnout during special elections, giving Democrats a belief they could pull off an upset.
Congress returns
The House and Senate return this week with only a few legislative days before they leave town again for the Christmas and New Year’s break. This schedule leaves little time to act and save the ACA-Obamacare subsidies that helps millions of Americans get health insurance. In the Senate, the Republican leadership promised a December vote on health insurance as part of the deal that secured passage of the bill that ended the government shutdown.
There have been reports that the White House is looking at a short-term extension of the ACA subsidies while work is done on a longer-term solution; but that idea has gotten some pushback from anti-Obamacare Republicans in the House. Clearly, if a solution is to be found, Trump will need to play a central role.
New shutdown deadline
The bill that opened the government was centered on a Continuing Resolution (CR) that runs until Jan. 30, 2026. While there appears little appetite for another shutdown, Congress will need to take some action if a shutdown is to be avoided. Several less controversial areas such as veterans and Agriculture Department programs were approved through the current fiscal year in the shutdown ending bill. However, large areas ranging from HHS to Defense were not included and need either a new 2026 budget or continued under current spending levels with a full year CR.
Again, as with so much in Washington, action will likely require direct involvement by the president.
