Shutdown and Election Trends

The shutdown continues, flights are delayed, food programs are in trouble, and federal workers aren’t being paid.  Both sides believe they have the strategic advantage; but the pain caused by the shutdown appears to grow by the day.

The action to find an exit strategy is focused on the Senate where they continue to have Groundhog Day votes with the same outcome, but there are reportedly talks going on between a group of moderates in both parties.  There is some optimism that the shutdown can come to an end next week; but the key could be whether President Trump wants to personally engage.

There were reports from a lunch that Senate Republicans had with the president this week that he believed that the poor showing by Republicans on Tuesday may have been caused by voters blaming Republicans for the shutdown. If that view holds, President Trump might return from his Florida weekend with a desire to end the shutdown.

Elections

Democrats had significant victories in the key election battles on Tuesday.  Democratic candidates captured the governor’s races in both Virginia and New Jersey.  The New Jersey race had become a focus in the last few weeks when polls showed the race tightening, but the Democratic candidate won easily.  The California ballot initiative on Congressional redistricting carried by a wide margin. In states ranging from Pennsylvania to Mississippi, Democrats scored wins.

While there is a full year between now and the important 2026 Congressional races, the results set off an early warning signal to Republicans that there is voter discontent with current policies.

Disclosures (show)

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