Presidential Race Heats Up, Powell Sends New Signals

The past week showcased the Democratic ticket of Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz.  Mirroring what happened at the Republican Convention, the official nomination of the Democratic ticket generated enthusiasm for the nominees among the party loyalists who were at the Convention.

Polling shows that the race for the White House has changed dramatically since President Biden dropped out, and while there is some degree of difference among polls, the trend is clear. The race has become very close ahead of the final post-Labor Day push to the finish line. 

Federal Reserve

At the Federal Reserve’s annual meeting at Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made clear that the time to cut rates has come.  Previously at his July post-FOMC meeting presser, he had sent a signal in declaring rate cuts to be on the table.  The meeting minutes that were released on Wednesday gave further evidence that the rate policy may be changing, reflecting the fact that some of the Committee Members had been ready to cut rates at the July meeting.  The Chair was ultimately able to get a unanimous vote to keep rates unchanged in July, but to me, the minutes show clear evidence that sentiment is changing. 

It is my view that Chair Powell wants to keep the Committee as united as possible, and as the data gets more supportive of a cut, Committee Members are arguably ready to move. The September 17/18 meeting seems like when the process will start.

Disclosures (show)

Sign in to read the report!

We have detected you are an active member!

Ray: f5f1fa-516a4b-ca73de-1b9a8a-fb0244

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free

Trending tickers in our research