The House will return to Washington on Monday for what seems like Groundhog Day and to try once again to agree on a new Speaker. First McCarthy was thrown out, then his number 2, Steve Scalise, was unable to secure 217 votes and dropped out, and last week Jim Jordan failed to get the votes.
On Thursday the House, for a third time, failed to agree on the candidacy of Ohio Republican Jim Jordan to become the next House Speaker. The number of votes against Jordan increased with each vote and on the third vote there were 25 Republicans voting against Jordan.
Perhaps most telling of Jordan’s problem was when the Republicans met in a closed caucus meeting on Thursday afternoon and took a secret vote on whether to continue with Jordan as the Speaker nominee, only 86 House Republicans voted to continue with Jordan. After this decisive vote Jordan withdrew from the contest.
Republicans decided to go home for the weekend and reconvene Monday evening to have a closed-door forum of those who want to run for Speaker. As of this morning there are 9 candidates: Republican Whip Tom Emmer (MN), who has been ranking in leadership behind McCarthy and Scalise, Kevin Hern (OK), Byron Donalds (FL), Austin Scott (GA), Jack Bergman (MI), Pete Sessions (TX), Gary Palmer (AL), Dan Meuser (PA), Mike Johnson (LA).
At the Monday evening session, each candidate will be given the opportunity to speak, and then Tuesday morning the caucus will meet and have a secret ballot, the candidate with the fewest votes will be dropped before the next vote. This process will continue until there are two candidates. The winner of the final vote will proceed to a floor vote. The designated candidate will then have to get 217 votes on the House floor.
There are clearly members of the caucus who will oppose a Speaker candidate who denied that Joe Biden won the 2020 election, and only two of the nine voted to certify the election. There is a larger group who want to fund the government and avoid a shutdown, and these Members are likely to oppose candidates who opposed the recently passed Continuing Resolution.
There are friendships, home state allegiances, ideological camps, and long-standing feuds such as friends of McCarthy, Scalise, and Jordan. In short it is going to be tough for anyone to hit the magic number of 217.
Could there be a bipartisan coalition agreement? From my days as a House aide, I find this highly unlikely. In the House Republicans and Democrats are in separate tribes, and in my view the only way a Republican could work with the Democrats to find a Speaker would be to switch parties, feelings are that strong.
There is an outside chance that the two sides could agree on a compromise candidate, without a bipartisan grand plan, and vote to make Patrick McHenry the Speaker for a limited time. The Republicans wouldn’t make deals and trade for this, but both sides could settle on McHenry to get the House moving again.
Remember the next government shutdown date of November 17 is quickly approaching.
Spending bills
Traditionally spending bills originate in the House, but with the clock ticking there is increased DC chatter that the Senate will start to move the 12 spending bills so that there are bills to discuss once the House gets back to work.
In the past when government shutdowns occurred some of the critical departments such as Defense had been passed. If the DoD bill is approved by Congress and the President, it will no longer be subject to a government shutdown and military pay will not be threatened.
If the Congress does not pass spending bills, then a government shutdown cliff arrives on November 17, a week before Thanksgiving.
In addition to the 12 spending bills, the Congress must deal with President Biden’s request for $105B for Ukraine, Israel, Southern Border, and strengthen defenses on the Pacific rim. Over the weekend the two Senate Leaders, Schumer and McConnell, appeared on the Sunday talk shows supporting action on the request.
