With the approval of the Phase 3 CARES Act there are two areas of focus in the political world: implementation of the massive bill and talk of a next step, Phase 4. There was an implementation hiccup last week when the Treasury Department announced that social security recipients who don’t file tax returns because they have so little income, will have to file to get their $1,200 check. After sharp bipartisan pushback Treasury reversed the decision in 24 hours. While not a huge deal, it does demonstrate the perils the Administration faces getting the money out the door.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced this week that she has created a bipartisan House Committee to conduct oversight of the array of programs created in the Phase 3 legislation. As I have written before the bill has big risk and reward for the President.
Good execution with money going out to small businesses, large corporations, the unemployed and the $1200 checks will incur positive views of the President by the recipients. But botched delivery of funds for these programs and charges of corruption will reverberate against the Administration and could have consequences in the election November.
While the Phase 3 money is not yet disbursed, talk has already begun on Phase 4. Both Republican leaders in Congress, Senator Mitch McConnell and House Republican Keven McCarthy, have expressed reservations about the need for Phase 4. However, the President and Speaker Pelosi seem to be on the same page looking at infrastructure as a way to stimulate recovery. First, officials will have to decide if Phase 4 will be focused on more relief or whether there is light at the end of the tunnel and it’s time to start stimulating for recovery; but these decisions are weeks away.
On the political front, former Vice President Joe Biden is holed up in his basement due to the shutdown and social distancing to limit the spread of the virus. For him, not much good can come from all the focus being on the President Donald Trump.
Biden has the unenviable task of trying to balance the pressures of a primary campaign that hasn’t officially ended with Senator Bernie Sanders still in the race and trying to draw distinctions between himself and the President who is guiding the country through this serious and dangerous outbreak of COVID-19.
A campaign on hold likely favors the incumbent.
Figure: Top Trump Tweets
We hit 3M hard today after seeing what they were doing with their Masks. “P Act” all the way. Big surprise to many in government as to what they were doing – will have a big price to pay!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 3, 2020
With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, this is the time to do our decades long awaited Infrastructure Bill. It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our Country! Phase 4
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 31, 2020
