Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock

  • SMCI

  • $33.14

  • +11.58%

  • $30.84

  • $34.37

  • $30.50

Granny Shots

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Wed, October 30, 2024 | 10:42AM ET

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Wed, October 30, 2024 | 10:42AM ET
Mark
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC

Head of Technical Strategy
🔥 🔥
SMCI 11.58%  Super Micro Computer gapped down sharply after their auditor quit (Ernst & Young) which is troubling news & the stock has gapped down under Sept/Oct lows on heavy volume right at the open. While the structure of the decline from earlier this year has made a near roundtrip from the gains from last December, the good news is that this should be the final stage of the decline as this breakdown kicks off the 5th wave of this pullback. the bad news is that hoping for a technical bottom on this gapdown will likely prove premature now, and i expect SMCI to return to the low 20s where it stabilized last year in late 2023. Thus, at $36, down 26% in one day is certainly a shocking one-day decline, it's difficult to make the technical case for a bounce like what was possible back in late September. This chart shows the ABC-type bounce attempt which has now given way to this new wave lower today. SMCI is a "technical Avoid" at a minimum, & i expect lower prices into December.
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Thu, September 12, 2024 | 4:47PM ET

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Thu, September 12, 2024 | 4:47PM ET
Mark
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC

Head of Technical Strategy
🔥 🔥 🔥
Super Micro Computer has begun to bounce given its positive momentum divergence & exhaustion on its recent pullback into 9/6. This breakdown to new lows was immediately suspect when the stock immediately climbed back on 9/9 to recapture the area from 8/28, a decline which happened on very heavy volume. Yesterday's follow-through was much needed, but as seen on daily charts, trends remain quite negative, and there should be no reason to attempt to buy dips on anything which is near 52-week lows. That being said, gains do look likely in the short run up to $487, then 513 (which would fill the gap from 8/27, and then $591 would be possible over 513, which take some time given the ongoing bearish momentum in this stock. At present, it's necessary for SMCI 11.58%  to break its current downtrend and show evidence of volume expanding before putting too much trust in this being a major bottom. For now, tactical rallies look to continue into next week.
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Mon, August 26, 2024 | 12:07PM ET

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Mon, August 26, 2024 | 12:07PM ET
Mark
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC

Head of Technical Strategy
🔥 🔥 🔥
Today's mild pullback in SPX and QQQ is nearly entirely large-cap Technology driven, as weakness out of SMCI 11.58% , MU -0.08% , AMAT -0.57% , AVGO 0.18%  of 3%+ has caused XLK to lose 1% while most other sectors are positive. On an Equal-weighted basis, Technology is the only down sector and Advance/Decline is nearly 2/1 positive, with gains of more than +0.50% out of Real Estate, Utilities and Staples. Both US Dollar and Yields are up fractionally, but otherwise, a rather slow start to the final week of August. Note, NASDAQ has not pulled back under the lows from late last week. As seen in this hourly chart of NASDAQ futures, under 19542 would result in a move to 19365 most likely which would prove to be strong support and a good risk/reward ahead of NVDA -3.18%  earnings on Wednesday. Overall, most of the market working fine today despite some minor Tech weakness and both Equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP 0.95% ) along with Russell 2k (IWM 1.98% ) etfs are both positive this morning.
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Wed, August 7, 2024 | 12:14PM ET

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Wed, August 7, 2024 | 12:14PM ET
Mark
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC

Head of Technical Strategy
🔥 🔥 🔥
SMCI 11.58%  gapped down again today as Profit of $6.25/share for period ending 6/30 was well below avg estimate of 8.25. Sales were largely in line at $5.31 billion. There seems to be concern about the longer-term profitability of AI-optimized servers sold by companies like SMCI, Dell, HPE, etc. SMCI missing its own profitability targets certainly doesn't help to alleviate these concerns. This stock has been a shell of its former self ever since markets bottomed in April and rose, but SMCI's rally was largely quite lackluster. As daily charts show, four months of rally barely put a dent in the prior decline from March into April and SMCI was unable to exceed its 50% retracement area of this prior decline. This choppy, overlapping bounce attempt was clearly a bearish wave structure (which indicated the possibility of additional declines) but it was the break of $805 back in mid-July, just a few weeks ago which served as technical confirmation, resulting in the downward acceleration, as this represented a true bearish break of support. This structure since March does look to represent an ABC corrective pattern which could mean that SMCI might eventually push back to new highs.
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