Wed November 8, 2023

Airlines look attractive as a counter-trend tactical long

SPX AND QQQ HAVE SURGED ON ABOVE-AVERAGE BREADTH AND HAVE CARVED OUT IMPULSIVE RALLIES OVER THE PAST WEEK.  THIS IS LIKELY A POSITIVE FOR GAINS TO NEAR EARLY OCTOBER HIGHS...

Wed June 14, 2023

Divergences Likely to Persist

Well, it seems that the ball game is over, and the bulls have clearly won.  Inflation is dead, the Fed should be easing anytime soon, the expected recession has been...

Wed April 26, 2023

Equity markets bank into "bunker mode" in front of May FOMC but ATH in unemployment claims for over $200k earners = far softer wage growth ahead. April 2023 rebalance "Granny shots" net -3 (+7, -10).

Reminder, tune in this coming Thursday to an important webinar ___________________________________GRANNY SHOTS APRIL QUARTERLY REBALANCE TODAySEE BELOW FOR ADDS AND DELETES ___________________________________ Equity markets came under selling pressure on Tuesday,...

Wed February 22, 2023

Are US PMIs bottoming? If so, Industrials gain >90% of the time with 12M returns 20-30%. 5 stocks + 3 ETFs. While seasonals and "hotter" economic data drive risk-off, Fed becoming "data dependent" historically leads to rising stocks despite higher rates.

Following several somewhat "hotter" data prints, markets are now moving back into the "higher for longer" camp, and in turn, markets are shifting into risk-off. We think this will prove...

Fri February 10, 2023

Aerospace/Defense nears breakout while Energy picking up steam

The near-term technical structure has worsened a bit this week with the break of 4100.  While I ultimately expect any further pullback to prove mild and not undercut 3885 before...

Mon January 30, 2023

Bond and equity volatilities at lowest levels since 2021 = supportive >20% rise in 2023. Updating "Granny shots" +12 adds (-12 deletes). 2023 YTD +39bp outperformance. 2022 +395bp outperformance. List adds attached.

The most important event in the coming week is the Feb FOMC decision (2/1). We will have more comprehensive thoughts on Wednesday, but as many are aware, we expect the...

Fri September 16, 2022

Transports nearing 50% retracement of 2020-2021 rally

September’s Triple Witching Friday close at multi-week lows is particularly negative for the prospects of a rally, and further selling still looks likely over the next couple weeks to likely...

Mon June 13, 2022

What Our Clients Are Talking About Behind The Scenes

At the start of last week, I released my updated sector recommendations (Sectors Update) and Whispers (Previous Whispers) where I continued to suggest that my work had not been supporting...

Fri June 10, 2022

Markets Sell-Off on Hot Inflation, Bad Consumer Sentiment

Good Evening: Markets were thrashed on Friday by a white-hot CPI print and also the lowest level for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey in the entire history of...

Fri June 10, 2022

My Earnings Work Continues To Show Deterioration, CPI Puts Water on Dovish Fed Pivot

The market was hit with two body blows today, the first was the hotter than expected CPI Print which came in at 8.6% on expectations of 8.3%. The second blow...

Mon February 28, 2022

Aerospace & Defense along with Energy showing strength

Monday’s churning still leaves markets in bottoming process as the month of February comes to a close.  While near-term price action remains choppy, rallies are expectedEnergy has shown some change...

Fri February 25, 2022

Five areas to overweight into March

Friday’s follow-through exceeded 4365, the 2/14 lows along with trendlines from 2/9, adding to the confidence of markets having achieved a good trading lowTreasury yields look to be turning back...