Bonds, Gold, Yen all about to rally Array ( [cookie] => 1b4d28-1cefcb-981de2-d7aae2-93bede [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 1 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 129858 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
Short-term trends in US Equities remain bullish, and SPX has now turned positive for the year after having risen over 1000 points off the 4/7/25 lows, or nearly 21% gains from 4835 in 25 trading days (nearly 1% a day). Despite having entered a price zone where reversals “could” happen, the price has not given any indication of a pullback being imminent. Meanwhile, “Safe-haven” trades like Gold, Treasuries, Japanese Yen, and/or Swiss Franc have all steadily weakened given the signs of tariff and geopolitical risk de-escalation in the last week. Overall, it will be important to watch out for any evidence of breadth starting to dry up on this rally, and/or signs of US Equity indices starting to reverse course following May expiration. (I don’t sense that today, Wednesday, 5/14/25, provided that proof.) While I expect that the road likely gets a bit tougher from here over the next month, it’s hard to fade rallies that haven’t begun to show much signs of fatigue. There could be some sign of this starting early next week, but at present, it looks wise to stick with this new uptrend vs. looking to fade recent gains.
While Wednesday showed some negative breadth, with nearly all the sectors lower on the day outside of Technology and large-cap Consumer Discretionary, there wasn’t sufficient weakness to argue for any kind of trend reversal.
Stocks like $TSLA, $NVDA, $MSFT, $PLTR have all been strengthening meaningfully in recent weeks, and counter-trend signs of exhaustion (a.k.a. Sell signals) remain premature. Thus, while the move in Healthcare does indeed look poor in the short run and could present a minor headwind to SPX at some point, given its representation within SPX, there hasn’t been sufficient evidence of Financials, Industrials, Discretionary, and most importantly, Technology, reversing course.


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