Analysis of SPX, SPGI, VRTX, and SOX Array ( [cookie] => 31dfe2-1b050a-0b954c-9d6af5-6013a7 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 94377 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
Note: There will be no video as I am out of the office. Thank you for your understanding.
This week proved positive for US Equities, despite the minor intra-day pullback on Friday ahead of the US/China trade talks. Realized volatility has lessened in recent days as the risk-on tone has improved, and SPX has rallied to near initial upside targets. Trends and momentum certainly have improved in the short term, but there remains a lack of clarity that very well might not be answered to the extent that many investors might be hoping for this weekend.
Trump has been talking about 80% Tariffs on China today while China's Minister of commerce Wang Wentao has said "China firmly opposes abuse of reciprocal tariffs, but they remain committed to talks and its position in defense of its own interests hasn't changed" (Bloomberg) (Recall that 2018 tariff talks had quite a few "Back and forth" sessions until the Fed stepped in and their actions coincided with the end of the late-2018 decline.
Overall, I see fractional upside for SPX into next week, but there is still not much evidence today to support the idea of any reversal ahead of the weekend. Short-term traders might consider using a 9-day moving average, which lies at 5625, where a close under this level might allow for near-term consolidation. However, at present, the pattern in SPX remains constructive and should allow for a push up to 5750-5800.


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