Fri, May 9, 2025 | 4:00PM ET

Analysis of SPX, SPGI, VRTX, and SOX

Name: FS Insight
Price range: $$$

Mark L. Newton, CMT ^AC

Head of Technical Strategy

Note: There will be no video as I am out of the office. Thank you for your understanding.

This week proved positive for US Equities, despite the minor intra-day pullback on Friday ahead of the US/China trade talks. Realized volatility has lessened in recent days as the risk-on tone has improved, and SPX has rallied to near initial upside targets. Trends and momentum certainly have improved in the short term, but there remains a lack of clarity that very well might not be answered to the extent that many investors might be hoping for this weekend.

Trump has been talking about 80% Tariffs on China today while China’s Minister of commerce Wang Wentao has said “China firmly opposes abuse of reciprocal tariffs, but they remain committed to talks and its position in defense of its own interests hasn’t changed” (Bloomberg) (Recall that 2018 tariff talks had quite a few “Back and forth” sessions until the Fed stepped in and their actions coincided with the end of the late-2018 decline.

Overall, I see fractional upside for SPX into next week, but there is still not much evidence today to support the idea of any reversal ahead of the weekend. Short-term traders might consider using a 9-day moving average, which lies at 5625, where a close under this level might allow for near-term consolidation. However, at present, the pattern in SPX remains constructive and should allow for a push up to 5750-5800.

S&P 500 Index

Analysis of SPX, SPGI, VRTX, and SOX — Source: TradingView

Following SPGI’s plunge under support near $474 back in early April, the stock promptly bottomed and recouped the area of importance at $474 to the upside, along with having exceeded the minor downtrend from February, which lies near $495. Both of these developments are positive for SPGI for the months to come. While the near-term stalling out this week might not be a surprise given it rallied over 18% in the last month from its lows at $427 in early April, any late May weakness down to $481-$487 would represent an attractive zone of support from a risk/reward perspective for those who are considering new positions. Overall, I like SPGI’s progress, and its technical structure has improved in recent weeks. Technically, an eventual lift back to test $545 is likely in the months ahead.

S&P Global Inc.

VRTX selloff this week has brought the shares closer to intermediate-term support after a period of choppy trading near its all-time highs in recent months. Overall, this does not take away from the bullish technical structure, and from an Elliott-wave standpoint, recent weakness likely should find strong support near $405 before starting to turn back higher. Unfortunately, this week’s volume has come in much higher than normal, which likely suggests a bit more consolidation might be in store in the back half of May before this can begin to turn back higher. However, VRTX will remain a technically attractive stock within Healthcare and remain part of UPTICKS barring a violation of December 2024’s intra-day lows of $377.85. In the months ahead, I expect a gradual bottoming out and resumption of its uptrend, which should help VRTX rally back to challenge and exceed $520.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

Last week’s gains in SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) back over 4290 were helpful towards improving the near-term technical structure in SOX following its breakdown from a well-established 14-month Head and Shoulders pattern, which began back in January 2024. As shown on weekly charts, SOX actually bottomed very close to both its intermediate-term uptrend from 2020 as well as an area of support caused by trends connecting former peaks from January 2022 to July 2023. Thus, the decline into early April this year managed to bottom very close to this area, which had intersected near 3480 in SOX. Overall, SOX’s near-term technical situation has improved given the recent rebound to recoup prior important areas of support (which are now considered resistance). However, for intermediate-term signs of progress, it will be necessary to surpass 5300, which would likely result in SOX moving back to new all-time highs. At present, this will take some time. However, SOX’s recovery this month paves the way for additional gains in the months ahead, which I suspect can challenge 5300 into this fall.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index

Disclosures (show)

This research is for the clients of FS Insight only. FSI Subscription entitles the subscriber to 1 user, research cannot be shared or redistributed. For additional information, please contact your sales representative or FS Insight at fsinsight.com.

Analyst Certification (Reg AC)

Mark L. Newton, CMT, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships. Neither I, nor a member of my household is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is/are the subject of this research report. There is a possibility that we will from time to time have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of FS Insight. At the time of publication of this report, FS Insight does not know of, or have reason to know of any material conflicts of interest.

General Disclosures

FS Insight is an independent research company and is not a registered investment advisor and is not acting as a broker dealer under any federal or state securities laws.

FS Insight is a member of IRC Securities’ Research Prime Services Platform. IRC Securities is a FINRA registered broker-dealer that is focused on supporting the independent research industry. Certain personnel of FS Insight (i.e. Research Analysts) are registered representatives of IRC Securities, a FINRA member firm registered as a broker-dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission and certain state securities regulators. As registered representatives and independent contractors of IRC Securities, such personnel may receive commissions paid to or shared with IRC Securities for transactions placed by FS Insight clients directly with IRC Securities or with securities firms that may share commissions with IRC Securities in accordance with applicable SEC and FINRA requirements. IRC Securities does not distribute the research of FS Insight, which is available to select institutional clients that have engaged FS Insight.

As registered representatives of IRC Securities our analysts must follow IRC Securities’ Written Supervisory Procedures. Notable compliance policies include (1) prohibition of insider trading or the facilitation thereof, (2) maintaining client confidentiality, (3) archival of electronic communications, and (4) appropriate use of electronic communications, amongst other compliance related policies.

FS Insight does not have the same conflicts that traditional sell-side research organizations have because FS Insight (1) does not conduct any investment banking activities, and (2) does not manage any investment funds.

This communication is issued by FS Insight and/or affiliates of FS Insight. This is not a personal recommendation, nor an offer to buy or sell nor a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, investment products or other financial instruments or services. This material is distributed for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting or investment advice.
The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.
Intended for recipient only and not for further distribution without the consent of FS Insight.

This research is for the clients of FS Insight only. Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but FS Insight does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to FS Insight and the analyst’s involvement (if any) with any of the subject companies of the research. All pricing is as of the market close for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, risk tolerance, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Except in circumstances where FS Insight expressly agrees otherwise in writing, FS Insight is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice, including within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client website, fsinsight.com. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or made available to third-party aggregators or the media. Please contact your sales representative if you would like to receive any of our research publications.