US Equities might weaken into 11/22 as Yields lift Array ( [cookie] => 036ab8-6547a6-cf8512-7b95b8-269f28 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 591084 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
SPX and QQQ look to be peaking out following nearly nine consecutive days of SPX gains (which failed on Thursday, and would have represented the longest interrupted rally since 2004.) However, gains in recent weeks occurred on sub-par market breadth and Technology largely camouflaged the degree to which other sectors failed to participate. Overall though, the move from 10/27 did look positive and impulsive from an Elliott-wave perspective. Thus, the bullish pattern from late October suggests that any weakness over the next two weeks likely proves short-lived before a further lift after Thanksgiving. Given that yields turned up sharply on poor auction results Thursday, it’s likely that volatility is approaching for both Equities and Treasuries and Yields could lift into the Thanksgiving holiday. While the extent of this initial lift off late October highs has been impressive, it should undergo consolidation into Thanksgiving holiday before rallies can continue.
Overall, I suspect that Thursday likely ushered in the peak to this recent US Equity bounce given that prices formed an engulfing pattern and closed near the lows of the session. This occurred as Treasury yields bounced sharply on poor 30-Year Auction results.
The entire yield curve shifted higher following the poor Auction results and the US Dollar turned back higher. Similarly to recent days, Technology initially disguised the weakness in other sectors into mid-day, but the large-cap weakness in Healthcare ($XLV -1.5%) and Consumer Discretionary ($XLY -1.5%) into mid-day broadened out to additional weakness by day’s end. 10 out of 11 sectors fell in Thursday’s session, and market breadth finished nearly 3/1 negative.
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