What Apple’s drop teaches us about Gravity, according to Newton Array ( [cookie] => 036ab8-6547a6-cf8512-7b95b8-269f28 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 591084 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
Key Takeaways
- Wednesday’s about-face to close at new weekly lows keeps trends bearish
- AAPL’s Support violation of 150 keeps Technology and Market indices moving lower
- Two different cycle composites both suggest weakness into June before a real bottom
The early rally attempt post Wednesday’s “hot” CPI print had many convinced that bad news might not be resulting in declines anymore, which some interpreted to be bullish. Unfortunately, the mid-day reversal carried prices back down to lows for the week, making it yet again “early” to expect any meaningful bounce. Overall, weekly SPX charts show prices now hovering above the first technical target unveiled at my 2022 Technical Webinar presentation in January 2022: 3815. This lines up with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from early 2020. However, while price is getting nearer, time still looks early for a low, which points to June as being more probable. Bottom line, if 3815 is broken, it could be likely that 3500 might come into play. This lines up with a 50% retracement of the 3/20-1/22 rally and lies right near February 2020 peaks. This cannot be ruled out as a possibility if this selloff starts to accelerate. Furthermore, despite sentiment having turned bearish, there hasn’t been sufficient capitulation yet, and my own proprietary cycle composite along with Exhaustion indicators point to 4-5 MORE weeks of possible selling before lows are in. Overall, it’s wise to be defensive and it's wise to be patient. When investors tire of buying dips, then an attractive low should be close.
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Thomas J. Lee
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