What needs to happen to gain conviction in this bounce

The chart in this report is only accessible to members
The chart in this report is only accessible to members
The chart in this report is only accessible to members

This week’s bounce has now carried SPX up 1% again, now its fourth consecutive day of 1% gains, and prices have moved right near the 50% retracement of the entire decline from early January.  While this rally was expected based on cycles into the March FOMC meeting, it’s difficult to chase gains above 4450 given intra—day overbought conditions.  Structurally this rally has broken above early March highs, which was thought to be a positive.  However, a few challenges remain that I’ll discuss which make it important to not give back too much of these gains on consolidation next week.   Overall, it looks right to still favor defensive sectors along with commodities and Bonds vs chasing stocks on this first big bounce off the lows. 

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Technical Developments over the last few days

Stocks have rebounded sharply over these last few days and volume was extraordinarily heavy as Triple-Witching Expiration Friday has come to a close.  There were rumors of over 3.5 trillion in options expiring, the most in nearly three years to mark the end of an important Fed week. 

Daily momentum has turned back to positive, while weekly and monthly momentum, as per MACD, remain negative. 

Treasury yi...
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