Watch for Cyclicals bottoming for sign of new up cycle Array ( [cookie] => 173aaf-da1bbc-1f54b9-040222-4df555 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 1 [role] => subscriber [visitor_id] => 568007 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
You have to be impressed by the persuasive power of price movement on sentiment and headlines. I’m obviously just a bit biased, but the sudden reversal from bearish to bullish headlines only reinforces the importance of including technical analysis in one’s investment process. Why? Well, despite the short-term wiggles that have developed through the summer, the longer-term technical backdrop has served as a very helpful steadying perspective through all the headline noise.
Pull up a monthly chart of the S&P 500 on your favorite charting software for a longerterm perspective that steps back from the near-term wiggles that dominate headlines. What you’ll see is a market index that has traded in a very narrow range following a major rebound from its secular uptrend using the 200-week (4-year) moving average. In fact, as I’ve regularly highlighted here, 2019 looks very similar to 2016 which was another period when equity markets stalled in the shadow of pending global recession… that never happened.
Now, of course, I can’t state for sure there won’t be a recession, but if you believe equities are reasonably good at discounting events 6-12 months ahead, then the S&P’s chart pattern is hardly bearish, at least not yet. If you been reading this space regularly, my view remains unchanged expecting a Q4 upside acceleration by stocks into yearand well into 2020-2021. Until I see otherwise, equity markets are tracking a very normal bullish 4-year cycle acceleration. For active traders, I’m expecting one more short-term pullback from current levels given daily momentum indicators are becoming overbought. Pending pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities in anticipation of an upside surge through Q4.
The focus of the three stock charts this week reinforce the broader market cycle commentary above. JPM, ITW and JPM are good proxies for companies moving money globally, manufacture ‘stuff’, and digging and building respectively. These monthly chart profiles are broad consolidations to important technical support at their rising secular uptrends defined by 48-month (200-week) moving averages. If the economic backdrop is truly deteriorating, as many forecasters are warning, why are these global cyclicals merely in relatively shallow consolidations and beginning to bottom at major support.
Become a Member To Access FS Insight Research
FS Insight gives individual investors access to Tom Lee's research, previously only available to banks and hedge funds.
|
|||
Join Now |
|
|||
Join Now |
What's included in your FSI Membership?
Thomas J. Lee
Head of Research
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
First Word The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis. |
|||||||
Intraday Alerts These are released periodically after crucial market developments. |
Real-Time | |||||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
||||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Macro Minute Video Daily video commentary on market conditions & key events. |
|||||||
Outlook Webinars We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights! |
Yearly | |||||||
Granny Shots Webinars | ||||||||
CEO Interview Webinars | Quarterly | |||||||
Appearances Archive | Real-Time | |||||||
Allocation Tools |
"Super Granny" Shots Stock List Granny Shots we expect to tactically outperform and underperform. |
|||||||
Granny Shots Stock List Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500. |
||||||||
Sector Allocation A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk. |
||||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
Real-Time |
Mark L. Newton
Head of Technical Strategy
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
Daily Technical Strategy Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities. |
|||||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
||||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Daily Technical Strategy Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities. |
|||||||
Live Technical Analysis | ||||||||
Outlook Webinars We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights! |
Yearly | |||||||
Appearances Archive | Real-Time | |||||||
Allocation Tools |
Newton's Upticks Stock List Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500. |
|||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
L. Thomas Block
Washington Policy Strategy
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
US Policy Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street. |
|||||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
||||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
Real-Time |
Sean Farrell & Crypto Team
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
Market Update Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news. |
|||||||
Weekly Strategy Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
||||||||
Funding Fridays Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested! |
||||||||
Crypto Concepts We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem. |
||||||||
Liquid Ventures A recurring research note focused on delivering unique insights into high-risk investment opportunities within the crypto ecosystem, primarily centered on early-stage or small-cap tokens. |
||||||||
Deep Research We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem. |
Quarterly | |||||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
||||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Outlook Webinars Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms. |
Yearly | ||||||
Crypto Comments |
Daily Technical Strategy From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge. |
|||||||
Allocation Tools |
Crypto Core Strategy A powerful tool designed to help crypto investors build a crypto portfolio that outperforms the industry’s king – bitcoin – regardless of market conditions. |
|||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
Real-Time |
FS Insight Research Team
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports | First to Market | |||||||
*Earnings Daily This note provides investors with a myriad of useful metrics to measure the progress of earnings season |
||||||||
Signal From Noise Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective. |
||||||||
Community Questions We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals! |
||||||||
FS Insight Academy Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way. |
||||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Free Macro Webinars Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders. |
Quarterly | ||||||
Free Crypto Webinars Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders. |
Quarterly |
*Daily reporting during each quarterly earnings season.