Tactical Tools Flip to Unfavorable While Remaining Medium-Term Bearish

As my calendar begins to refill and my activity levels start returning to normal after my couple weeks of dealing with some things, I find it interesting to be both reading/hearing from other forecasters/analysts as well as interacting with clients. 

From other forecasters/analysts, I am hearing talk about how good earnings have been for the quarter, that the equity markets are in great shape, lots of technical strength, the economy will avoid recession, and that the Fed is close to aggressively shifting back to accommodation. 

My discussions with clients are quite different.  They are neither overly bearish nor uber bullish.  Most have less cash than during 2H22, are cautious and concerned, with a high percentage of frustrated, confused people.  Although there are ongoing debates and questions regarding the overall macro backdrop, there is now a higher percentage of time being spent on sector and style allocations, as well as single stock discussions. 

The next couple of weeks and into the end of 1H23 are going to be filled with lots of potential hand grenades, including the upcoming May FOMC meeting, the last half of the ongoing earnings season, fears of a slowing U.S. economy, a resurfacing of problems in the banking sector, and the head...
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