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January 2023 Outlook — Inflation/Fed Cycle Lingers Longer & Patience Needed

Executive Summary

From current levels, our work suggests that the strategic reward/risk tradeoff for the S&P 500 is still tilted towards risk, but with a high likelihood that 2023 will mark the ultimate bear-market low for equities.  With that being said, my research says it will not be easy, and 1H23, at least, will be a hard-fought tug-of-war between Doves/Bulls and the Hawks/Bears.  Patience will be needed, as well as a steely resolve to shift towards opportunity once the challen...

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