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Your Weekly Roadmap
Markets End Lower Ahead of Fed Week, November CPI
Good evening, The chop continues ahead of two significant events on the year-end calendar: the November CPI report releases Tuesday, Dec. 13, and the Federal...
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First Word
Markets far more de-risked into June FOMC. And +75bp brings rates closer to market expectations.
Since Friday's CPI (higher CPI) and U Mich Consumer Confidence survey (rise in consumer inflation expectations), consensus expectations for June is now a 75bp hike...
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First Word
Investors have become "single issue" voters (inflation)... and Tech + small-caps quietly gaining
The May CPI report (reported Friday), coupled with the U Mich Consumer Confidence survey, showed inflation remains sticky. And while there was some evidence, on...
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First Word
Emerging leadership of Tech + China supports better 2H outlook... more signs forward inflation cooling
As many of our clients have remarked recently, every economic data point is really an inflation report. Repeating the obvious logic: trajectory of inflation impacts...
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First Word
"Soft landing" scenario strengthening. 1980s inflation broken when "goods" inflation peaked. Consumer discounts ahead. Target confirms. Manheim Index shows Luxury + Full-sized tanking.
Investors tell us they don't want to "fight the Fed" and as long as the Fed is tight, they will not touch equities. This is...
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First Word
Nasdaq outperformed post dot-com crash. Yup. And structural labor shortage strengthens demand for Technology in 2022
Signs of economic slowing are becoming more prevalent, allaying concerns that the economy is so "hot" that the Fed needs to further accelerate rate hikes....
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First Word
As probabilities of benign-er outcomes rise, FAANG/Nasdaq should rebound first
The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure...
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First Word
Recent cadence of data shows inflation risks cooling = half-full arguments gaining traction. TA Newton believes Bitcoin has bottomed = good for equities
The White House and Fed met Tuesday and this is the first meeting since Powell was re-confirmed. The takeaways from this meeting are not entirely...
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First Word
Multiple signs economy shifting to "buyer's market" vs seller's = downside to inflation = justify stocks strengthening
I had a conversation earlier this week with the owner of one of the largest privately held food producers in the US (tens of millions...
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First Word
Stocks overshot to downside even with inflation risks. Indeed.com shows material weakening in labor markets = reduced wage inflation risk
Inflation and fears of surging inflation are top of mind. There are many causes behind this rise in inflation from supply chain woes, war-related disruptions,...
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Your Weekly Roadmap
Markets End Lower Ahead of Fed Week, November CPI
Good evening, The chop continues ahead of two significant events on the year-end calendar: the November CPI report releases Tuesday, Dec. 13, and the Federal...
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First Word
Markets far more de-risked into June FOMC. And +75bp brings rates closer to market expectations.
Since Friday's CPI (higher CPI) and U Mich Consumer Confidence survey (rise in consumer inflation expectations), consensus expectations for June is now a 75bp hike...
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First Word
Investors have become "single issue" voters (inflation)... and Tech + small-caps quietly gaining
The May CPI report (reported Friday), coupled with the U Mich Consumer Confidence survey, showed inflation remains sticky. And while there was some evidence, on...
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First Word
Emerging leadership of Tech + China supports better 2H outlook... more signs forward inflation cooling
As many of our clients have remarked recently, every economic data point is really an inflation report. Repeating the obvious logic: trajectory of inflation impacts...
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First Word
"Soft landing" scenario strengthening. 1980s inflation broken when "goods" inflation peaked. Consumer discounts ahead. Target confirms. Manheim Index shows Luxury + Full-sized tanking.
Investors tell us they don't want to "fight the Fed" and as long as the Fed is tight, they will not touch equities. This is...
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First Word
Nasdaq outperformed post dot-com crash. Yup. And structural labor shortage strengthens demand for Technology in 2022
Signs of economic slowing are becoming more prevalent, allaying concerns that the economy is so "hot" that the Fed needs to further accelerate rate hikes....
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First Word
As probabilities of benign-er outcomes rise, FAANG/Nasdaq should rebound first
The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure...
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First Word
Recent cadence of data shows inflation risks cooling = half-full arguments gaining traction. TA Newton believes Bitcoin has bottomed = good for equities
The White House and Fed met Tuesday and this is the first meeting since Powell was re-confirmed. The takeaways from this meeting are not entirely...
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First Word
Multiple signs economy shifting to "buyer's market" vs seller's = downside to inflation = justify stocks strengthening
I had a conversation earlier this week with the owner of one of the largest privately held food producers in the US (tens of millions...
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First Word
Stocks overshot to downside even with inflation risks. Indeed.com shows material weakening in labor markets = reduced wage inflation risk
Inflation and fears of surging inflation are top of mind. There are many causes behind this rise in inflation from supply chain woes, war-related disruptions,...
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