Market Ends Week on Upswing After Dovish FOMC, Soft Job Numbers Array ( [cookie] => 596a25-805399-724db3-06fc84-1cfaa6 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 208285 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss

“You must understand that there is more than one path to the top of the mountain.” ~Miyamoto Musashi

Good evening,

For stocks, April was the worst month of the year so far, ending 4% down from its levels on April 1. It was the first down month for all three major indices since October 2023, and also one of the worst Aprils in the past 40 years. (Only April 2012 was worse for equities.) 

The second half of the month has seen equities enter what Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee describes as a “two steps forward, one step back” market, with rising though choppy trading, as illustrated by our Chart of the Week:

This was the backdrop for the meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee on May 1, during which FOMC members voted to keep rates unchanged from the levels set in July 2023. Ahead of the meeting, recent inflation prints had some speculating that Fed Chair Jerome Powell might signal a future hawkish pivot and hint at possible rate hikes soon.

Lee saw it differently.