Hard Data Matches Soft—At Last

“The best negative print I have ever seen in my life.” — Peter Navarro about Wednesday’s GDP report. 

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Good morning!

There’s no cure for a bad mood. And if ignored long enough, it will come back to bite you with disastrous consequences. 

Markets realized this yesterday. After fresh economic data amplified recessionary concerns, the S&P 500 fell sharply but finished up 0.15%, while the Nasdaq Composite also suffered the same fate but ended the day down less than 0.1%.

Consumers and businesses have warned this year that they don’t feel all that good about President Donald Trump’s policies, which have thrown the stock and bond markets into relentless chaos. But those inclined to always seek a silver lining argued that the bad sentiment hasn’t actually influenced behavior in a meaningful way, and the possibility they might be correct helped the market regain some of its footing in recent days. The S&P 500 has rallied 1.5% over the past week. 

That narrative came under fire Wednesday when the GDP report unveiled many important things, and no, we’re not just talking about the economy noting the first contraction since 2022. The decline was led by businesses massively pulling forward goods to get ahead of tariffs. Imports rose to 41...
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