“The greatest wealth of this nation is not only the mergers of giant corporations or the possibility of further globalization of the infrastructure of the world. In the United States, our greatest single source of wealth is the minds and talent of our young people. Not to use it is stupid – to waste it is a crime.” – Isaac Stern
Chart of the Day
Good morning!
A prodigy and brilliant student, Shanghai-born Qian Xuesen traveled to the U.S. in the 1930s to earn his master’s degree at MIT and a PhD from CalTech. He went on to professorships at both schools, later co-founding NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. He also contributed to research on the X-20 Dyna-Soar spaceplane, viewed by some as the precursor to the space shuttle.
Then in 1955 he was deported, a victim of McCarthyism and the Red Scare.
As it turns out, this was America’s loss. Forced to return to China, Qian led development of China’s Dongfeng family of ballistic missiles, China’s manned space and satellite program, and nuclear weapons. In modern China, he is remembered and revered as the “father of Chinese rocketry.”
Qian taught China the importance of talent – both acquiring and retaining it. It is possibly with Qian in mind that China is devoting so much effort into making sure it retains key talent – admittedly not always in the most pleasant or practical of ways: in the wake of DeepSeek’s AI achievements and booming emergence onto the world stage, authorities have reportedly begun prohibiting key employees from traveling abroad, and some claim that the company itself has even asked some staff to surrender their passports. This draconian approach is likely to be counterproductive – scientific progress thrives on discussion, collaborative networking, and the free exchange of ideas, particularly at academic conferences and similar events around the world.
Yet China is also aggressively trying to recruit talent from abroad – something that the U.S. did with such ease throughout most of the 20th century and much of this one as well, simply by offering freedom, opportunity, the best higher education in the world, and a generally superior standard of living. To compensate, Chinese tech companies – many, like Huawei, with ties to the government – are throwing offers of lucrative compensation at recent grads, academics, engineers, and scientists in strategically important areas like advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence. China is also streamlining the bureaucratic process and making promises of logistical support and generous funding to prospects. Of course, the West is not a fan of what it regards as Chinese poaching.
Some pundits have noted that lately, the U.S. seems to be choosing to do the opposite of what China does. This is the case here as well. While China continues to try to make it easier for foreign scientists to emigrate to and work in the Middle Kingdom, the U.S. seems to be making the process more difficult than it already was. The rising opposition to the H-1B visa program, on which companies in tech, engineering, health care, and academia rely to recruit foreign talent, is but just one example of that.
Even if – as opponents of the H-1B program argue – the U.S. has plenty of native-born talent to replace the loss of any imported expertise, the question remains: does the U.S. really want to let China or some other rival nation benefit from recruiting the next Qian Xuesen? As Box CEO Aaron Levie argues on X, it is wrong to operate as if “innovation is finite […] Tech is not zero sum. More startups, pursuing more ideas, ultimately create more innovation and ultimately more jobs and prosperity.”
Catch Up With Fundstrat
It has been a positive week for markets, bolstered by several key developments. Collectively, they support the view that the Fed “put” is alive and well, demonstrated by the market’s reaction following the March FOMC rate decision.
TECHNICAL
In our view, there are increasing signs that SPX lows should be in place after recent strength since last week. Back-to-back days of strong advance/decline data look quite bullish for equities.
CRYPTO
Recently, we have noticed a divergence between stablecoin inflows and ETF inflows. Stablecoin market cap has continued to climb, contrary to the exodus of capital from ETFs. This normally precedes prices moving higher, but we see the possibility that this is not the case right now.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- Trump to order Department of Education shutdown SEM
- Bank of England holds interest rates at 4.5% amid fears over stubborn inflation GUA
Markets and economy
- Google, Apple hit with EU antitrust actions under cloud of Trump tariff threat CNBC
- Proposed US port fees on China-built ships begins choking coal, agriculture exports REU
- LME fined by UK regulator over chaos in nickel market FT
Business
- Costco follows Walmart’s lead on tariffs QZ
- Boeing Stock Rockets, Suppliers Rally, On Deliveries Affirmation IBD
- Ripple CEO Says SEC Will Drop Its Legal Case Against Crypto Firm; XRP Token Jumps WSJ
- Shopify Stock Gains On Listing Move To Nasdaq From NYSE IBD
Politics
- Trump administration reinstating nearly 25,000 fired federal workers BBC
- Chuck Schumer faces growing calls from House Democrats to step down AX
Overseas
- Li Ka-shing: Hong Kong’s richest man in hot water over Panama Canal deal AP
- Four Canadians Executed in China, Canada Says – WSJ
Of Interest
- Jury Finds Greenpeace Liable for Hundreds of Millions in Damages NYT
- Americans are unhappy. Here are the 5 happiest countries in the world QZ
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -21
point(s) (-0.4%
) overnight range: -47 to +30 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -0.25%
Topix +0.45% China SHCOMP -0.51% Hang Seng -2.23% Korea +0.32% Singapore +0.57% Australia +1.16% India +1.24% Taiwan +1.90% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.95%
Stoxx 600 -0.54% FTSE 100 -0.02% DAX -1.32% CAC 40 -0.91% Italy -1.42% IBEX -0.79% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.43%
to 103.87 EUR/USD -0.48% to 1.0851 GBP/USD -0.25% to 1.2970 USD/JPY +0.17% to 148.44 USD/CNY -0.19% to 7.2434 USD/CNH -0.23% to 7.2479 USD/CHF -0.49% to 0.8821 USD/CAD -0.37% to 1.4379 AUD/USD -1.10% to 0.6287 |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed -2.4bps
to -35.6bps
10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed -0.8bps to 25.4bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed -0.1bps to 30.7bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +1.08%
SPX Eq Wt +0.74% NASDAQ 100 +1.30% NASDAQ Comp +1.41% Russell Midcap +1.19% R2k +1.57% R1k Value +0.75% R1k Growth +1.50% R2k Value +1.31% R2k Growth +1.82% FANG+ +1.99% Semis +0.88% Software +1.57% Biotech +1.50% Regional Banks +1.25% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Healthcare +0.01% REITs +0.07% Cons Staples +0.12% Utes +0.29% Materials +0.34% Fin +1.04% SPX +1.08% Comm Srvcs +1.29% Indu +1.29% Tech +1.42% Energy +1.59% Cons Disc +1.90% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -2.2bps
to 357bps All Sectors ex-Energy -2.0bps 325bps Cons Disc -0.6bps 346bps Indu -5.0bps 264bps Tech -3.2bps 360bps Comm Srvcs -0.9bps 552bps Materials +3.1bps 321bps Energy -6.0bps 353bps Fin Snr -3.8bps 304bps Fin Sub +2.2bps 231bps Cons Staples -2.0bps 232bps Healthcare -3.4bps 369bps Utes -2.4bps 246bps * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/20 | 10:00 AM | Feb Existing Home Sales | 3.95 | 4.08 |
| 3/20 | 10:00 AM | Feb Existing Home Sales m/m | -3.19 | -4.9 |
| 3/24 | 9:45 AM | Mar P S&P Manu PMI | n/a | 52.7 |
| 3/24 | 9:45 AM | Mar P S&P Srvcs PMI | n/a | 51 |
| 3/25 | 9:00 AM | Jan Case Shiller 20-City m/m | n/a | 0.52 |
| 3/25 | 10:00 AM | Mar Conf Board Sentiment | 94 | 98.3 |
| 3/25 | 10:00 AM | Feb New Home Sales | 680 | 657 |
| 3/25 | 10:00 AM | Feb New Home Sales m/m | 3.5 | -10.5 |
| 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Feb P Durable Gds Orders | -0.7 | 3.2 |
