A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“Without craftsmanship, inspiration is a mere reed shaken in the wind.” ~Johannes Brahms
Overnight
Tokyo subway operator’s shares soar after Japan IPO NYT
IMF: global battle against inflation ‘largely won’ CNBC
Ex-Abercrombie CEO arrested on sex trafficking charges BBC
US charges senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards official in failed plot to kill human rights activist SEM
Arkansas may have vast lithium reserves, researchers say NYT
UK and Germany set to sign new defense agreement SEM
India-China ties may see thaw four years after border skirmish froze relations WSJ
US allocates $196 million for natural gas pipeline modernization RT
SEC settles charges with associate of short seller Andrew Left for $1.8 million RT
FAA finalizing pilot training, certification rules for air taxis RT
Arm cancels Qualcomm’s chip design license amid legal dispute FT
McDonald’s shares fall after CDC says E. coli outbreak linked to Quarter Pounders CNBC
U.S. fines American Airlines record $50 million over treatment of disabled passengers CNBC
Amazon set to counter Temu with price-capped storefront INF
Peloton partners with Costco to sell Bike+ as it looks to reach young, wealthy customers CNBC
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -9
point(s) (-0.2%
) Overnight range: -12 to +1 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -0.8%
Topix -0.55% China SHCOMP +0.52% Hang Seng +1.27% Korea +1.12% Singapore +0.37% Australia +0.13% India -0.09% Taiwan -0.85% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.16%
Stoxx 600 -0.06% FTSE 100 -0.22% DAX +0.07% CAC 40 -0.3% Italy +0.12% IBEX +0.1% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.25%
to 104.34 EUR/USD -0.14% to 1.0784 GBP/USD -0.03% to 1.298 USD/JPY +1.09% to 152.72 USD/CNY +0.04% to 7.1267 USD/CNH +0.06% to 7.1401 USD/CHF +0.23% to 0.8674 USD/CAD +0.06% to 1.3826 AUD/USD -0.39% to 0.6656 |
| Crypto |
| BTC -1.5%
to 66488.21 ETH -2.01% to 2579.84 XRP -1.33% to 0.526 Cardano -1.37% to 0.3589 Solana -1.16% to 165.53 Avalanche -2.99% to 26.79 Dogecoin -2.0% to 0.1373 Chainlink -4.65% to 11.42 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +1.37%
to 18.45 WTI Crude -1.51% to 71.0 Brent Crude -0.99% to 75.29 Nat Gas -0.82% to 2.29 RBOB Gas -0.98% to 2.051 Heating Oil -0.61% to 2.223 Gold +0.06% to 2750.69 Silver -0.78% to 34.59 Copper -0.88% to 4.342 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -1.1bps
to 4.7381% 3M -0.8bps to 4.6172% 6M flat at 4.4672% 12M +1.0bps to 4.2588% 2Y +1.8bps to 4.0502% 5Y +2.3bps to 4.0299% 7Y +2.1bps to 4.1239% 10Y +2.0bps to 4.2276% 20Y +2.0bps to 4.5814% 30Y +1.9bps to 4.5153% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread widened 1.1bps to -59.8
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 0.0bps to 17.3 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 0.1bps to 28.6 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -0.05%
SPX Eq Wt -0.45% NASDAQ 100 +0.11% NASDAQ Comp +0.18% Russell Midcap -0.55% R2k -0.37% R1k Value -0.29% R1k Growth +0.1% R2k Value -0.18% R2k Growth -0.54% FANG+ +0.18% Semis -0.45% Software -0.18% Biotech +0.12% Regional Banks +1.26% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Cons Staples +0.92% Comm Srvcs +0.36% Energy +0.2% REITs +0.16% Tech +0.15% SPX -0.05% Fin -0.12% Healthcare -0.16% Cons Disc -0.27% Utes -0.4% Materials -0.86% Indu -1.19% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +3.2bp
to 338bp All Sectors ex-Energy +3.8bp to 314bp Cons Disc +1.8bp to 295bp Indu +2.6bp to 249bp Tech +3.9bp to 333bp Comm Srvcs -0.4bp to 538bp Materials +6.0bp to 316bp Energy +2.8bp to 325bp Fin Snr +4.7bp to 297bp Fin Sub +2.7bp to 204bp Cons Staples +5.2bp to 316bp Healthcare +4.0bp to 370bp Utes +7.5bp to 223bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/23 | 10AM | Sep Existing Home Sales | 3.88 | 3.86 |
| 10/23 | 10AM | Sep Existing Home Sales m/m | 0.52 | -2.53 |
| 10/24 | 9:45AM | Oct P S&P Manu PMI | 47.5 | 47.3 |
| 10/24 | 9:45AM | Oct P S&P Srvcs PMI | 55.0 | 55.2 |
| 10/24 | 10AM | Sep New Home Sales | 720.0 | 716.0 |
| 10/24 | 10AM | Sep New Home Sales m/m | 0.6 | -4.7 |
| 10/25 | 8:30AM | Sep P Durable Gds Orders | -1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10/25 | 10AM | Oct F UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 10/25 | 10AM | Oct F UMich Sentiment | 69.1 | 68.9 |
| 10/29 | 10AM | Oct Conf Board Sentiment | 99.0 | 98.7 |
| 10/29 | 10AM | Sep JOLTS | n/a | 8040.0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
The most notable change in betting markets is now the surge in the possibility of a Republican sweep. Our analysis shows that several sectors have been highly correlated with this change. Conversely, if one feels the betting markets are wrong, one can bet against these groups.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- SPX, QQQ look vulnerable through November and 5900-5950 looks important.
- GE has fallen to important near-term support. NVDA resistance hits near $147-155.
- Homebuilders decline should lead to opportunity on pullbacks into mid-November.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
- Stripe’s acquisition of Bridge is a major development for stablecoins and crypto rails.
- Solana’s breakout against Bitcoin and Ethereum resembles moves seen in 2024Q1 and 2023Q4.
- We continue to think that HPC miners will have their moment in the sun.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Walmart (WMT 1.33% ) yesterday announced plans for a nationwide service that would deliver prescription medications to customers in 49 states starting in February 2025. The service, already available in Arkansas, Missouri, New York, Nevada, South Carolina, and Wisconsin, would be free for members of its Walmart+ program (the Walmart version of Amazon Prime) and $9.95 per delivery for non-members. In some areas, Walmart has claimed that deliveries could arrive as soon as 30 minutes after placement of an order. Walmart’s announcement comes weeks after Amazon (AMZN 0.96% ) announced plans to offer same-day delivery of prescription medications in 20 additional cities, including Boston, Dallas, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, and San Diego.
Walmart and Amazon have long been putting pressure on what traditional drugstore chains like CVS 0.19% and Walgreens (WBA -0.36% ) refer to as “front of the house” revenues on personal-care products like shampoo and household goods such as paper towels and cleaning supplies. These latest moves expand the competition to drugstores’ back-of-house pharmacy departments, which have also found themselves contending with a growing number of supermarket-based pharmacies.
Faced with such multifaceted contests, Walgreens on October 11 announced plans to close a quarter of its 8,200 retail locations, similar to decisions made by rivals like Rite Aid and CVS 0.19% . It is unclear what, if any, effect that this will have on growing problem of so-called “pharmacy deserts,” in which many Americans lack access to a pharmacy. While new competition has undoubtedly contributed to closures of some drugstores, it is frequently also providing reliable access to prescription medication to customers in pharmacy deserts who had previously been relying on far riskier online alternatives.
Nevertheless, many experts are concerned that online pharmacies can be difficult for elderly and lower-income patients to access, and that online pharmacies are largely unable to provide the benefits of local, in-person consultations with pharmacists who know their patients. (AX, CNN, CNBC, WP, CNBC)
