Will Fed Oct. 31 Meeting Be Trick or Treat? Likely the Latter

When it comes to when and how much the Federal Reserve will change the Fed funds rate, who ya gonna believe, the Fed or the CME’s Fed fund futures trading?

After watching the Fed futures activity for years, I can say with confidence that markets have so far had a better handle on rates than even the Fed “dot plots” from the knowledgeable members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Over the past five years, time and time again, the futures turned out to be more accurate than the Fed i...

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