Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Macro Strategy
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Macro Strategy
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Incoming economic “hard” data won’t reflect increasing signs of disinflation. Visibility on “I” matters more than “e”
There will be several incoming “hard” data points that will impact market views on inflation and economy and therefore impact Fed policy. Paramount remains inflation pressures and while many “soft” (surveys and market implied) and leading indicators (commodities, etc) have softened sharply, the actual data needs to be seen to...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Less “I” on horizon. Markets can see through weaker “e” if “I” disinflating
Cooling of inflation (“i”) aka disinflation is Fed primary focus and in 1H2022, the sole focus of markets. Obviously, there remains the question of how quickly inflation can cool, and this lack of visibility unsettles markets. But as we discuss below, energy prices have dropped sharply in the past few...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
As probabilities of benign-er outcomes rise, FAANG/Nasdaq should rebound first
The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Multiple signs economy shifting to “buyer’s market” vs seller’s = downside to inflation = justify stocks strengthening
Inflation and fears of surging inflation are top of mind. There are many causes behind this rise in inflation from supply chain woes, war-related disruptions,...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
DeMark webinar takeaways: S&P 500 to have one more selloff then “shocking” rally coming (within days)
Today’s note is a recap from our webinar with Tom DeMark, founder of DeMark Analytics and Symbolik. com. Tom DeMark has gained a large following...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
The August 1982 moment: bear market “bottom” before Fed pivots – if true, new highs coming sooner than most expect
The biggest takeaway for me on events of this week? Convincing and arguably decisive evidence the “bottom is in” — the 2022 bear market is over.this was a big data week, with FOMC, 2Q GDP, housing and PCE (today)a huge miss on GDP, yet markets rallyFed raises +75bp and says...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
3 Reasons Why Stocks Might Be Strengthening, Bond Market Seems to Be “Changing Its Mind”
Yesterday’s CPI report is an example of this. The CPI Core (ex-food and energy) was +0.3% month over month, improving over Feb’s +0.5% and the...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
“Finkle Is Einhorn?!”- Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Explained, Granny Shots Updated
We pay heed to the market adage “don’t fight the Fed.” While Dudley is no longer a Fed member, many believe he is communicating a...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Markets Are Whispering Bottom, Yield Curve Inversion Likely Through
So, it is obvious that the macro environment is uncertain. Contrary to consensus views, FSInsight had warned of a treacherous 1H2022 in our 2022 outlook...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Markets Continue To Show Resilience, Evidence of Potential Strong Forward Returns Is Ample
While consensus remains bearish and pundits warn of dangers ahead, we still lean “bullish” against consensus With each passing day, when 1H2022 is characterized as...
