Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Macro Strategy
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Macro Strategy
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
5 reasons equities rallying. Expanding breadth affirms 2022 “bottom” is in. P/E can expand with Fed hikes, as long as “shocks” are avoided. 2H rally.
We are starting to see strengthening internals for equity markets, including key leadership improvements from Technology ($QQQ) and small-caps ($IWM) and measures such as advance/decline lines. Thus, from the perspective of our Head of Technical Strategy, Mark Newton, this is the healthiest expansion of participation all year, and a key...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Despite a flat out bad June CPI report, Fed officials sound “measured” (vs “expeditious”)…arguably enabling equities to see “less bad”
In the 36 hours since the horrific June CPI report, equities have managed to better with Technology stocks managing gains.initial “hawkish” market reaction was to price near 100% odds of +100bp for July hikebut as the Fed funds futures chart shows, this was reversed during the trading session Thuthis is...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
LEAD VS LAG: Case strengthening inflationary drivers peaked (“lead”), even if CPI remains elevated (“lag”) = market perception lagging
Incoming data this week has pointed to a pronounced softening of economic momentum globally, and this has pushed commodity prices lower and similarly pushed down...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Equities become ‘no bid’ and %-stocks >50D now 2.0%...4 stocks (of 9) need to fall to reach 1.2% seen Mar 23, 2020 and Dec. 24, 2018
Equities have suffered an utter meltdown in the past week as the hot inflation implications of U Mich and CPI pushed stocks into “no bid.”...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Emerging leadership of Tech + China supports better 2H outlook… more signs inflation cooling
As many of our clients have remarked recently, every economic data point is really an inflation report. Repeating the obvious logic: trajectory of inflation impacts...
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- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Don’t Wait For Fed: Fed Raising rates 48% of periods since 1954 and equities often turn 6M before last “hike”
Investors remain broadly cautious on equities. This is completely understandable given the carnage in markets this year, along with the great uncertainties associated with the trifecta of rising inflation, Russia-Ukraine war and “negative shocks” delivered by Fed hawkish policy. But as a counterpoint, one can be constructive if one believes...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
S&P 500 waterfall decline of 16% (5 mos) seen only 18 times since 1940 = signs closer to end of selloff
Fed policy is already “biting hard” after 3 hikes—on the margin, 3 more reasons inflation pressures might be peaking Stocks continued their waterfall decline this...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Treachery Is Fully Evident Markets, But Risk-Reward Is Looking Attractive for Growth Stocks
It's been very painful and I think it's clear that not only are equity markets nervous and edgy, but they're hyper, hyper sensitive to inflationary...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Markets Have Terrible Week, But Risk/Reward of FAANG Beginning to Look Attractive
I am a huge Nicholas Cage fan. Some of his earliest movies had an influence in my youth — Peggy Sue Got Married, Moonstruck, Leaving...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
2022 Is a “Pie In The Face” Kind of Year, Thoughts on Netflix
If someone asked me to describe 2022 so far, it is a “pie in the face” year. The world is facing several key turning points...
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