Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
ISM prices decline points to future steep fall in PPI (like a rock). Remote-work creating same job posting in multiple cities (overstating tightness?) 2H rally thesis strained but still intact
There is a lot of trepidation about markets in September. The seasonals worry investors (one of the toughest months), coupled with midterm election uncertainties (not...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
With housing weakening, investors bringing out their “2008 hammers” again. Cognitive bias in full force. 2H rally intact.
Sentiment among our clients has not changed much. The plurality of our clients remain skeptical and see a multitude of problems ahead (see discussion below)....
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Inflation showing decisive “break” in pattern. Rally strengthening = focus on lower quality. 6 names. 2H rally intact.
The rally seen in equity markets post-CPI has been largely met with skepticism. This is essentially true of the gains seen over the past week...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Don’t Wait For Fed: Fed Raising rates 48% of periods since 1954 and equities often turn 6M before last “hike”
Investors remain broadly cautious on equities. This is completely understandable given the carnage in markets this year, along with the great uncertainties associated with the...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
The August 1982 moment: bear market “bottom” before Fed pivots – if true, new highs coming sooner than most expect
The biggest takeaway for me on events of this week? Convincing and arguably decisive evidence the “bottom is in” — the 2022 bear market is...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
5 reasons equities rallying. Expanding breadth affirms 2022 “bottom” is in. P/E can expand with Fed hikes, as long as “shocks” are avoided. 2H rally.
We are starting to see strengthening internals for equity markets, including key leadership improvements from Technology (QQQ -1.17% ) and small-caps (IWM -1.52% ) and measures such as advance/decline...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Despite a flat out bad June CPI report, Fed officials sound “measured” (vs “expeditious”)…arguably enabling equities to see “less bad”
In the 36 hours since the horrific June CPI report, equities have managed to better with Technology stocks managing gains.initial “hawkish” market reaction was to...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Incoming economic “hard” data won’t reflect increasing signs of disinflation. Visibility on “I” matters more than “e”
There will be several incoming “hard” data points that will impact market views on inflation and economy and therefore impact Fed policy. Paramount remains inflation...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Less “I” on horizon. Markets can see through weaker “e” if “I” disinflating
Cooling of inflation (“i”) aka disinflation is Fed primary focus and in 1H2022, the sole focus of markets. Obviously, there remains the question of how...
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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
LEAD VS LAG: Case strengthening inflationary drivers peaked (“lead”), even if CPI remains elevated (“lag”) = market perception lagging
Incoming data this week has pointed to a pronounced softening of economic momentum globally, and this has pushed commodity prices lower and similarly pushed down...
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