Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed

Video: NY Fed 1-yr expectations rose in Sept, reflecting anticipated tariff impacts, but the longer-term remained stable at 3%.  This is positive.  And coupled with the lingering shutdown, sets up for Fed to lean dovish this month into FOMC.

Please click here to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:38).

Prediction markets are showing a 96% probability that the shutdown lasts beyond 9 days. While at first glance, this ...

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