$ORCL surge 27% after-hours shows that AI stocks still undervalued. BLS jobs report revisions show US did not add jobs in 2025 = dovish. Markets waiting for August Core CPI on Thu

Video: Investors are keeping an eye for the August Core CPI report set to be released on thu at 8:30am ET.  The balance of data points to softer labor markets, including August jobs report and these recent BLS labor market revisions. This, in turn, is dovish, which is good for equities.

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Fundstrat has a team at FutureProof, the finance conference/festival, put together by Matt Middleton and Ritzholz management and on the beach at Huntington Beach, CA. Total attendance is around 5,000 and we have met and spoken with many investors.

• The overall sentiment of investors is neutral, to slightly positive. Many investors told us they were glad we had advised them to view that April waterfall decline as an opportunity, not as a time to get into cash. This reminds me that the Japanese word for crisis is “ke-ke” two words — “danger and opportunity” — it is important to realize that every crisis creates opportunity.

• Today, the BLS released its annual benchmark revisions and the figure is a whopping -911,000. This means that the US economy produced far less jobs than initially expected:
  – 2025 YTD monthly average –> 75,000
  – BLS revisions monthly –> -76,000 downwards
  – 2025 YTD post-revisions monthly –> -1k
• The US lost an average of 1,000 jobs per month. This is far worse than expected and is a reason the Fed will need to cut in September. This is probably not entirely surprising to markets, since the household survey of the jobs report already showed very weak labor growth. It was the “establishment” survey that showed strong jobs — but this establishment figure will now be revised to match the weak numbers from the household survey.
• Oracle (ORCL -0.07% ) already reported results after the close. The EPS figure was light but bookings (RPOs) were strong at $455 billion. And the stock is up +27% after hours. ORCL -0.07%  now has a market cap greater than $1 trillion. ORCL -0.07%  is also a Granny Shot (ticker GRNY 0.35% ).
• To us, ORCL -0.07%  is another data point showing us the AI infrastructure story remains intact. Visibility for spending remains strong and IDC recently estimated AI spend would reach $1.3 trillion in 2029, compared to $400 billion in 2024. This is exponential growth.
• And this makes me wonder why Nvidia (NVDA -1.20% ) only trades at 26.6X forward P/E. NVDA -1.20%  is the scarcest company in the world, selling a chip that every AI LLM and company needs.
  – NVDA -1.20%  forward P/E 26.6X
  – Costco COST -1.46%  forward P/E 48.5X
  – Walmart WMT -0.60%  forward P/E 39.2X
• Why is NVDA -1.20%  trading below the P/E of two staples companies? This is why we think NVDA -1.20%  is vastly undervalued. But if NVDA -1.20%  is vastly under-valued, this argues that AI valuations overall are too low. Plus, the 27% surge in ORCL -0.07%  also suggests that these stocks are undervalued.
• There are some important data points this week, most important are the PPI and CPI on Wed and Thu respectively:
  – 9/8 Mon 9:00 AM ET: Aug F Manheim Used Vehicle Index    207.4
  – 9/8 Mon 11:00 AM ET: Aug NYFed 1yr Inf Exp    3.2%
  – 9/9 Tue 6:00 AM ET: Aug Small Business Optimism Survey    100.8 vs 100.5e
  – 9/9 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Prelim. Benchmark Payroll Revisions    -911k vs -682ke  
  – 9/10 Wed 8:30 AM ET: Aug Core PPI MoM    0.32%e
  – 9/11 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Aug Core CPI MoM    0.31%e
  – 9/12 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Sep P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp    4.6%e

BOTTOM LINE: Still “most hated rally”

This still remains the “most hated” V-shaped stock rally. As for what we would buy

• MAG7 & Bitcoin & Ethereum
• Industrials
• Financials: Large-cap and regional banks
• Small-caps

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50 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 8/17. Full stock list here -> Click here

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Key Incoming Data September:

• 9/2 9:45 AM ET: Aug F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 9/2 10:00 AM ET: Aug ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 9/3 10:00 AM ET: Jul F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 9/3 10:00 AM ET: Jul JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 9/3 2:00 PM ET: Sep Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 9/4 8:30 AM ET: Jul Trade Balance Tame
• 9/4 8:30 AM ET: 2Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
• 9/4 8:30 AM ET: 2Q F Non-Farm Productivity Tame
• 9/4 9:45 AM ET: Aug F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 9/4 10:00 AM ET: Aug ISM Services PMI Tame
• 9/5 8:30 AM ET: Aug Non-Farm Payrolls Tame
• 9/8 9:00 AM ET: Aug F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 9/8 11:00 AM ET: Aug NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 9/9 6:00 AM ET: Aug Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 9/10 8:30 AM ET: Aug Core PPI
• 9/11 8:30 AM ET: Aug Core CPI
• 9/12 10:00 AM ET: Sep P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 9/15 8:30 AM ET: Sep Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 9/16 8:30 AM ET: Aug Retail Sales Data
• 9/16 10:00 AM ET: Sep NAHB Housing Market Index
• 9/17 9:00 AM ET: Sep M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
• 9/17 2:00 PM ET: Sep FOMC Decision
• 9/18 8:30 AM ET: Sep Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 9/18 4:00 PM ET: Jul Net TIC Flows
• 9/22 8:30 AM ET: Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 9/23 9:45 AM ET: Sep P S&P Global Services PMI
• 9/23 9:45 AM ET: Sep P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 9/23 10:00 AM ET: Sep Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
• 9/23 10:00 AM ET: Aug Existing Home Sales
• 9/24 10:00 AM ET: Aug New Home Sales
• 9/25 8:30 AM ET: Aug P Durable Goods Orders
• 9/25 8:30 AM ET: 2Q T GDP
• 9/25 11:00 AM ET: Sep Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
• 9/26 8:30 AM ET: Aug Core PCE Deflator
• 9/26 10:00 AM ET: Sep F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 9/29 10:30 AM ET: Sep Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 9/30 10:00 AM ET: Sep Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 9/30 10:00 AM ET: Aug JOLTS Job Openings

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: