5 reasons the CBP actions to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected China imports are a positive development.  Looking for S&P 500 5,500 near-term and we focus on "washed out" stocks Array ( [cookie] => c42767-ec41bc-e17939-8846bd-ea945d [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 0 [user_id] => 0 [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

VIDEO: The actions taken on Friday evening to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected semi-conductor and smartphone products is unequivocally positive (7:44).

We view the actions taken by CBP to delay the collection of China reciprocal tariffs as an unequivocal positive, because it points to a further de-escalation of tariff war impacts and these delay/de-escalations enable more time for better agreements to be formed and for US multinationals to take corrective action.

5 POSITIVES: Why CBP actions are positive

• De-escalation of tariff impact.
• Provides room for China to similarly de-escalate.
• Provides time for US Technology and multi-nationals to take corrective actions ahead of tariff impacts.
• Creates “positive option” value for tariffs to be less punitive and ultimately an upside case for US corporates.
• Shows there are more “voices” in this negotiation.

This shift in tone builds on other market-positive signals from the past week, including Fed dovishness and deferred tariff enforcement.

• On April 9, the White House delayed certain targeted tariffs by 90 days, reducing near-term pressure on trade-sensitive sectors.
• This was followed on April 11 by Fed Governor Susan Collins signaling that the Fed’s liquidity “put” remains in place—offering reassurance to equity markets.
• Now with exemptions for specific Chinese imports, the overall backdrop is notably less punitive and allows room for further global cooperation.

• These tariff developments also provide cover for Chinese officials to reciprocate in kind, encouraging stabilization The Chinese Commerce Ministry described the exemption as a “small step toward correcting wrongful action,” potentially opening the door to improved diplomatic engagement. Given the lack of substantive bilateral dialogue recently, any olive branch is important. By softening tariff enforcement without eliminating leverage, the U.S. may be giving Beijing a non-escalatory path forward.
• Dan Ives of Wedbush noted that these actions effectively remove the tail-risk “doomsday” scenario for tech, allowing firms like NVDA -1.33%  and TSLA -1.27%  to recalibrate supply chains and pricing strategies. 
• With April 7 marking a likely bottom in names like NVDA -1.33%  ($87) and TSLA -1.27%  ($214), and both having made higher relative lows since, this sets a more constructive tone heading into earnings.
• Additionally, this creates positive option value for less punitive trade outcomes while recession risks decline.
• Recession odds, previously sitting at 68%, dropped to 44% by Sunday. Even after Lutnick’s Sunday talk-show pushback, those odds remain below 50%, suggesting market participants are increasingly less inclined towards recession. With hawkish voices like Peter Navarro now sidelined, there’s a growing sense that a more constructive trade and economic policy path is emerging.
• Meanwhile, earnings season begins with important updates from several Grannies 
• Key reports include GS 1.73% , ABT 0.85% , PGR 1.04% , AXP 1.69% , NFLX 2.69% , and IBKR 0.70% . These names will provide a window into consumer behavior, corporate margin resilience, and ongoing AI and healthcare adoption
  

Strategically, we continue to see this as a bull market with tactical opportunity. While the shape of the bottom—whether “V-shaped” like 2020 or range-bound like 2011—is still forming, near-term upside looks likely. Mark Newton sees room for a rally to 5,500, roughly 2–3% higher from here, and investors should focus on positioning for the broader trend rather than trading every minor drawdown.

There are a number of key market events this week:

• 4/14 Mon 11:00 AM ET: Mar NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp   
• 4/15 Tue 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey    -12.5e
• 4/16 Wed: April Super Granny Market Update
• 4/16 Wed 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales    1.4%e
• 4/16 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index    38e
• 4/16 Wed 1:30 PM ET: Powell Speaks to Economic Club of Chicago
• 4/16 Wed 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows   
• 4/17 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook    3.0e
• 4/17 Thu 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
• 4/18 Fri: Good Friday (Market Holiday)

As well as Fed Speak (key will be Powell on 4/16)

• 4/14 Mon 1:00 PM ET: Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 4/14 Mon 6:00 PM ET: Harker Speaks on Role of Fed
• 4/14 Mon 7:40 PM ET: Bostic Speaks in Fireside Chat on Policy
• 4/15 Tue 7:10 PM ET: Cook Speaks at Alumni Event
• 4/16 Wed 12:00 PM ET: Hammack Speaks in Moderated Q&A
• 4/16 Wed 1:30 PM ET: Powell Speaks to Economic Club of Chicago
• 4/16 Wed 7:00 PM ET: Schmid Chats With Fed’s Logan on Economy
• 4/17 Thu 11:45 AM ET: Barr Speaks in Fireside Chat
• 4/18 Fri 11:00 AM ET: Daly Speaks in Moderated Conversation

Finally, we have compiled a list of 32 stocks that we believe are “sold out,” but not “oversold” using the following criteria:

1. Current Market Cap >$10 Billion
2. Down >30% at least a week before April 8th
3. Didn’t make new 52-week low on April 8th
4. Daily volume April 8th less than daily volume at 52-week low
5. Short interest Day to Cover Ratio >2

Below is the full list of 32 stocks:

SOLD OUT NOT OVERSOLD: 32 stocks potentially washed out

• Comm. Services: EA 1.43% , RBLX -0.91% , WBD 0.50%
• Discretionary:  RIVN 3.57% , DUOL -0.81% , ULTA 1.12% , CAVA -1.52%
• Staples: HSY 2.81%
• Financials: ARES 0.46% , NU 1.52% , LPLA -0.22% , KNSL 0.57%
• Healthcare: DXCM 1.56% , EW 0.68% , PEN -0.75% , UHS 1.94% , CVS -0.70% , SOLV 2.43% , HUM -3.46%
• Industrials: AXON 1.21% , PWR 1.75% , UBER 0.72% , BAH 2.99% , LDOS 0.78%
• Technology: DT 0.60% , NTNX 1.35% , ANET 1.27% , CRWD -0.20% , PSTG 0.41% , SMCI -0.75% , WDC 3.66%
• Utilities: CEG -1.08%

Bottom line: Tariff delays and de-escalations are a positive that give US multinationals more breathing room for corrective action

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45 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here

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• 4/1 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 4/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM Tame
• 4/3 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance Tame
• 4/3 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 4/3 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI Tame
• 4/4 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls Hot
• 4/7 9:00 AM ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 4/8 6:00 AM ET: Mar Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 4/9 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes Mixed
• 4/10 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core CPI MoM Tame
• 4/11 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PPI MoM Tame
• 4/11 10:00 AM ET: Apr P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp Hot
• 4/14 11:00 AM ET: Mar NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 4/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales
• 4/16 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index
• 4/16 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows
• 4/17 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 4/17 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/23 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales
• 4/23 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 4/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales
• 4/25 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/28 10:30 AM ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 4/29 9:00 AM ET: Feb S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q A GDP QoQ
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q ECI QoQ
• 4/30 10:00 AM ET: Mar Core PCE MoM

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