THERE IS NO VIDEO YESTERDAY/TODAY. I HAVE BEEN IN TRANSIT VIA AIRPORT AND CANNOT ACCESS A QUIET SPOT.
Equities sold off sharply with S&P 500 -1.4%, Nasdaq 100 -2.4% and Russell 2000 -3.2%. It was an ugly day for markets, and yet measures of panic selling were not that prevalent as pointed out by Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy (see below).
- It was not only equities that moved sharply. Bond yields fell with the 10-year falling below 4% to 3.979%. The VIX surged but only managed to reach 19.5, not the “20” typically seen as a sign of panic.
- But the most notable move is the probabilities of a 50bp cut in Sept:
– yesterday reached 29.9%
– was 14.4% 7/31, so it doubled yesterday - There are several possible drivers behind the equity sell-off yesterday, and to me, it is not really clear what the important factors were, but here is what we saw.
- First, July ISM manufacturing came in light at 46.8 vs Street 48.8 and 48.5 last month. The employment component came in at 43.4 vs 49.2 Street and 49.3 last month. So the labor piece was considerably softer and raises concerns that the job market is so weak, the Fed could be too late waiting until Sept.
- Second, geopolitical risks might have been reassessed given the deaths of several leaders in the Middle East and Iran’s calls for retaliation. We know the general knee jerk reaction is for investors to reduce risks whenever tensions rise.
- Third, recent Presidential polls show Kamala gaining traction in key states, which in turn, reduce the real-time probabilities of a Trump White House. Real Clear Politics betting average (composite across markets) stands at 51.3% versus nearly 70% after the first Biden / Trump debate. Is Kamala bad for markets? We don’t see this but we also know markets prefer certainty. And a close Presidential race is not “certainty”
- Fourth, we are on the eve of the July jobs report (Fri 8:30am ET) and likely a “soft” report below Street consensus of +175k. There are many economists concerned that the “Sahm rule” has already been triggered. This is when the unemployment rate rises 50bp from its low and this has led to recessions. Fed chair Powell noted this is only a model and doesn’t have to lead to a reaction of a recession, but we know markets like to worry.
- Fifth, we are entering August and traditionally investors are wary given this month typically sees many investors on vacation. And given the factors noted above, this could be more reason to “de-risk” in the summer doldrums of August. And especially given the heightened concerns about a recession.
- Sixth, there was central bank action in Japan (BoJ) and UK (BoE) this week. BoJ cut bond purchases and BoE did a “cut and hold” and these impacted currencies. But movements of currencies often portend risk-off reactions.
- As sizable as this selloff was, Mark Newton notes that this did not have signs of wide-spread distribution. That is, it was relatively “orderly” and not a sign of panic selling. He notes:
– advancers to decliners was 1:2, one would expect 1:9 (90% down) on panics
– TRIN was not elevated (ARMS index)
– equity put/call was 0.82, not 1.0 or greater - And this is neither good nor bad. Why?
– bad interpretation: we have not seen the bottom
– good interpretation: the technical damage is not as bad as index declines appear - Newton Noted:
“Overall, it’s still tough for me to put too much credit into Thursday’s price action as to having “changed the trend” or “broken any trend” and uptrends remain intact. This would only change on a daily close under July lows of SPX-5390.95. QQQ has strong support at 449-450 and until/unless 449 is broken, I’m willing to bet that Technology also is bottoming, and I cannot get too negative following this pullback. IWM -0.69% remains the most bullish of the three, and has barely moved since pushing up aggressively to new multi-month highs into mid-July. IWM’s strong pullback certainly did result in short-term breakout attempts failing above the recent range. However, this likely finds strong support near 213-216 and should not face much more selling pressure.”
BOTTOM LINE: 4 reasons to view this as a “normal pullback” — not recession trade
Did the outlook for stocks “suddenly” become bearish yesterday? No. This is why this is a buying opportunity. I am not sure if equity markets rebound Friday, but we certainly expect them to rebound in coming days, and here are the reasons:
- First, over the next few weeks, there are some important macro data points and all of these matter:
– post-FOMC, there will be numerous Fed speak moments
– these will clarify the “why wait for Sept” and we expect lead investors to be confident Sept happening
– 8/11 is July CPI. And “tame” inflation reports still matter because this alters the “two sided” risk arguments - This likely allays the “Fed is making a mistake” fears
- Second, the technical damage is limited.
- Newton noted yesterday regarding small-caps (which fell the hardest):
“I don’t view today to be too serious technically and there is not much that suggests that Small caps have peaked based on the combination of daily charts and momentum, nor DeMark, nor wave structure.” - He continues:
“Thus, could bad news eventually be bad news for Stocks? as in recent weeks/months, we’ve seen the opposite as yields have fallen. Thus, looking to buy dips makes sense technically and IWM -0.69% is certainly appealing down under 218 which might bottom 215-217 near lows from late July which is close to an area of Ichimoku support. The daily chart shows this entire pattern from early July as being a large triangle consolidation “Wave 4″ type formation, so Small-caps are attractive and expect a rally back to 236 into mid-August with the potential for 244.” - Third, the rate cuts will reverse the parts of the economy that are “recession-like” which means rate cuts are likely to be effective:
– the areas of the economy with recession-like conditions
– durable goods
– auto sales
– affordability for housing - These are all positively impacted by rate cuts. So the Fed cutting rates will trigger an inflection. On housing especially, there are few that view housing demand as exhausted but it is held back by high costs of financing. Adjustable rate mortgages are priced off short term rates, so this is positively impacted by lower rates. Same with auto loans. Contrast this with a cycle where the economy capital spending is exhausted. This was hardly the case yesterday given cautious outlooks by CEOs.
- Fourth, there are quantitative arguments. Here are the two most notably, there are two “rare” things that happened that are positive for small-caps:
1. Russell 2000 (IWM -0.69% ) hit a 30-month high (after 12M)
– only 9X since 1979 and
– 100% higher 1M and 3M later
2. Russell 2000 moved >+/-1% in 11 of 12 consecutive days last week
– seen only 10X since 1979
– higher 1M, 3M, 6M 90%, 100% and 100% of time, respectively
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Key incoming data August 2024:
8/1 8:30 AM ET: 2Q P Nonfarm ProductivityTame8/1 8:30 AM ET: 2Q P Unit Labor CostsTame8/1 9:45 AM ET: Jul F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame8/1 10:00 AM ET: Jul ISM Manufacturing PMITame- 8/2 8:30 AM ET: Jul Jobs Report
- 8/2 10:00 AM ET: Jun F Durable Goods Orders
- 8/5 9:45 AM ET: Jul F S&P Global Services PMI
- 8/5 10:00 AM ET: Jul ISM Services PMI
- 8/6 8:30 AM ET: Jun Trade Balance
- 8/7 9:00 AM ET: Jul F Manheim Used vehicle index
- 8/12 11:00 AM ET: Jul NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
- 8/13 6:00 AM ET: Jul Small Business Optimisim Survey
- 8/13 8:30 AM ET: Jul PPI
- 8/14 8:30 AM ET: Jul CPI
- 8/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Retail Sales Data
- 8/15 8:30 AM ET: Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey
- 8/15 8:30 AM ET: Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook
- 8/15 10:00 AM ET: Aug NAHB Housing Market Index
- 8/15 4:00 PM ET: Jun Net TIC Flows
- 8/16 10:00 AM ET: Aug P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
- 8/19 9:00 AM ET: Aug M Manheim Used vehicle index
- 8/21 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 8/22 8:30 AM ET: Jul Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 8/22 9:45 AM ET: Aug P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- 8/22 9:45 AM ET: Aug P S&P Global Services PMI
- 8/22 10:00 AM ET: Jul Existing Home Sales
- 8/23 10:00 AM ET: Jul New Home Sales
- 8/26 10:00 AM ET: Jul P Durable Goods Orders
- 8/26 10:30 AM ET: Aug Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
- 8/27 9:00 AM ET: Jun S&P CoreLogic CS home price
- 8/27 10:00 AM ET: Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- 8/29 8:30 AM ET: 2Q S 2024 GDP
- 8/30 8:30 AM ET: Jul PCE Deflator
- 8/30 10:00 AM ET: Aug F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
Key incoming data July 2024:
7/1 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame7/1 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Manufacturing PMITame7/2 9:30 AM ET: Powell, Lagarde, Campos Neto Speak in SintraTame7/2 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job OpeningsTame7/3 8:30 AM ET: May Trade BalanceTame7/3 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Services PMITame7/3 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Services PMITame7/3 10:00 AM ET: May F Durable Goods OrdersTame7/3 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Meeting MinutesTame7/5 8:30 AM ET: Jun Jobs ReportTame7/8 11:00 AM ET: Jun NY Fed 1yr Inflation ExpTame7/9 6:00 AM ET: Jun Small Business Optimism SurveyTame7/9 9:00 AM ET: Jun F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame7/9 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to Senate BankingTame7/10 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to House Financial ServicesTame7/11 8:30 AM ET: Jun CPITame7/12 8:30 AM ET: Jun PPIMixed7/12 10:00 AM ET: Jul P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame7/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame7/15 12:00 PM ET: Fed’s Powell Interviewed by David RubensteinTame7/16 8:30 AM ET: Jun Retail Sales DataTame7/16 10:00 AM ET: Jul NAHB Housing Market IndexTame7/17 9:00 AM ET: Jul M Manheim Used vehicle indexMixed7/17 2:00 PM ET: Jul Fed Releases Beige BookTame7/18 8:30 AM ET: Jul Philly Fed Business OutlookTame7/18 4:00 PM ET: May Net TIC FlowsTame7/22 8:30 AM ET: Jun Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame7/23 10:00 AM ET: Jun Existing Home SalesTame7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Services PMITame7/24 10:00 AM ET: Jun New Home SalesTame7/25 8:30 AM ET: 2QA 2024 GDPTame7/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun P Durable Goods OrdersTame7/26 8:30 AM ET: Jun PCE DeflatorTame7/26 10:00 AM ET: Jul F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame7/29 10:30 AM ET: Jul Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame7/30 9:00 AM ET: May S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame7/30 10:00 AM ET: Jul Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame7/30 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job OpeningsTame- 7/31 8:30 AM ET: 2Q ECI QoQ
- 7/31 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Decision
Key incoming data June 2024:
6/3 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame6/3 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Manufacturing PMITame6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr JOLTS Job OpeningsTame6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Durable Goods OrdersTame6/5 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Services PMITame6/5 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Services PMITame6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Nonfarm ProductivityTame6/6 8:30 AM ET: Apr Trade BalanceTame6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Unit Labor CostsTame6/7 8:30 AM ET: May Jobs ReportHot6/7 9:00 AM ET: May F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame6/10 11:00 AM ET: May NYFed 1yr Inf ExpTame6/11 6:00 AM ET: May Small Business Optimism SurveyTame6/12 8:30 AM ET: May CPITame6/12 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC DecisionTame6/13 8:30 AM ET: May PPITame6/14 10:00 AM ET: Jun P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame6/17 8:30 AM ET: Jun Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame6/18 8:30 AM ET: May Retail Sales DataTame6/18 9:00 AM ET: Jun M Manheim Used vehicle indexTame6/18 4:00 PM ET: Apr Net TIC FlowsTame6/19 10:00 AM ET: Jun NAHB Housing Market IndexTame6/20 8:30 AM ET: Jun Philly Fed Business OutlookTame6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Services PMIMixed6/21 10:00 AM ET: May Existing Home SalesTame6/24 10:30 AM ET: Jun Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame6/25 8:30 AM ET: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame6/25 9:00 AM ET: Apr S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame6/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame6/26 10:00 AM ET: May New Home SalesTame6/27 8:30 AM ET: 1Q T 2024 GDPTame6/27 10:00 AM ET: May P Durable Goods OrdersTame6/28 8:30 AM ET: May PCE DeflatorTame6/28 10:00 AM ET: Jun F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
Key incoming data May 2024:
5/1 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame5/1 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Manufacturing PMITame5/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job OpeningsTame5/1 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC DecisionDovish5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Nonfarm ProductivityTame5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar Trade BalanceTame5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Unit Labor CostsMixed5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar F Durable Goods OrdersTame5/3 8:30 AM ET: Apr Jobs ReportTame5/3 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMITame5/3 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Services PMITame5/7 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame5/10 10:00 AM ET: May P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationMixed5/13 11:00 AM ET: Apr NYFed 1yr Inf ExpTame5/14 6:00 AM ET: Apr Small Business Optimism SurveyTame5/14 8:30 AM ET: Apr PPIMixed5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr CPITame5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Retail Sales DataTame5/15 8:30 AM ET: May Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame5/15 10:00 AM ET: May NAHB Housing Market IndexTame5/15 4:00 PM ET: Mar Net TIC FlowsTame5/16 8:30 AM ET: May Philly Fed Business OutlookTame5/17 10:00 AM ET: May M Manheim Used vehicle indexTame5/22 10:00 AM ET: Apr Existing Home SalesTame5/22 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Meeting MinutesTame5/23 8:30 AM ET: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMITame5/23 10:00 AM ET: Apr New Home SalesTame5/24 8:30 AM ET: Apr P Durable Goods OrdersTame5/24 10:00 AM ET: May F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame5/28 9:00 AM ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame5/28 10:00 AM ET: May Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame5/28 10:30 AM ET: May Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame5/29 2:00 PM ET: May Fed Releases Beige BookTame5/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q S 2024 GDPTame5/31 8:30 AM ET: Apr PCE DeflatorTame
Key incoming data April 2024:
4/01 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame4/01 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ManufacturingMixed4/02 10:00 am ET: Feb JOLTS Job OpeningsTame4/03 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMITame4/03 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ServicesTame4/05 8:30 am ET: Mar Jobs ReportHot4/05 9:00 am ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame4/10 8:30 am ET: Mar CPIHot4/10 2pm ET: Mar FOMC Meeting MinutesTame4/11 8:30 am ET: Mar PPITame4/12 10:00 am ET: Apr P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame4/15 8:30 am ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame4/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Retail Sales DataMixed4/15 10:00 am ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market IndexTame4/16 8:30 am ET: Apr New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame4/17 9:00 am ET: Apr Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame4/17 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame4/18 8:30 am ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame4/22 8:30 am ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity SurveyTame4/23 9:45 am ET: Apr P S&P Global PMITame4/25 8:30 am ET: 1QA 2024 GDPTame4/26 8:30 am ET: Mar PCETame4/29 10:30 am ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame4/30 8:30 am ET: 1Q ECI Employment Cost IndexMixed4/30 9:00 am ET: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
Key incoming data March 2024:
3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ManufacturingTame3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMITame3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ServicesTame3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services CommitteeDovish3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job OpeningsTame3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityTame3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban AffairsDovish3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs ReportMixed- 3
/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPISlightly Hot (as anticipated) 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPIMixed3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales DataTame3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market IndexTame3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate DecisionDovish3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMITame3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDPTame3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCETame
Key incoming data February 2024:
2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityMixed2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January FinalTame2/01 10am ET January ISM ManufacturingMixed2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs ReportHot2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January FinalTame2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January FinalTame2/05 10am ET January ISM ServicesTame2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January FinalMixed2/09 CPI RevisionsTame2/13 8:30am ET January CPIMixed2/14 PPI RevisionsTame2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales DataTame2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market IndexTame2/16 8:30am ET January PPIMixed2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February PrelimTame2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-MonthTame2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting MinutesTame2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February PrelimTame2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame- 2/
28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDPTame 2/29 8:30am ET January PCETame
Key incoming data January 2024:
1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December FinalMixed1/03 10am ET December ISM ManufacturingTame1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings NovemberTame1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting MinutesTame1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December FinalTame1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs ReportMixed1/05 10am ET December ISM ServicesTame1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December FinalTame- 1/
11 8:30am ET December CPIDetails Suggest Tame 1/12 8:30am ET December PPITame1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales DataStrong1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-MonthTame1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market IndexMixed1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January PrelimTame1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January PrelimMixed1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDPMixed1/26 8:30am ET December PCETame1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings DecemberMixed1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionTame
Key incoming data December 2023:
12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November FinalTame12/01 10am ET November ISM ManufacturingStrong12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November FinalStrong12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings OctoberTame12/05 10am ET November ISM ServicesStrong12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityStrong12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November FinalTame12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs ReportTame12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December PrelimTame12/12 8:30am ET November CPITame12/13 8:30am ET November PPITame12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionDovish12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales DataTame12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December PrelimTame12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market IndexTame12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-MonthTame12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDPMixed12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyMixed12/22 8:30am ET November PCETame12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December FinalTame12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame- 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI
Key incoming data November 2023:
11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October FinalTame11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings SeptemberMixed11/01 10am ET October ISM ManufacturingTame11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press ConferenceTame11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionDovish11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm ProductivityTame11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs ReportTame11/03 10am ET October ISM ServicesMixed11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October FinalTame11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationHot11/14 8:30am ET October CPITame11/15 8:30am ET October PPITame11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing SurveyResilient11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales DataResilient11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market IndexTame11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-MonthTame11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting MinutesTame11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November PrelimMixed11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDPStrong11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige BookTame11/30 8:30am ET October PCETame
Key incoming data October 2023:
10/2 10am ET September ISM ManufacturingTame-
10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings AugustHot -
10/4 10am ET September ISM ServicesTame 10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs ReportMixed-
10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September FinalTame 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation ExpectationsMixed-
10/11 8:30am ET September PPIMixed 10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting MinutesTame-
10/12 8:30am ET September CPIMixed -
10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflationMixed 10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales DataHot10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market IndexTame10/18 8:30am ET September Housing StartsTame10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige BookTame10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame10/19 10am ET Existing Home SalesTame10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October PrelimTame-
10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP AdvanceStrong 10/27 8:30am ET September PCETame10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectationTame10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost IndexMixed10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home priceMixed10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
Key incoming data September 2023:
9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs ReportTame9/1 10am ET August ISM ManufacturingTame9/6 10am ET August ISM ServicesMixed9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige BookTame9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August FinalTame9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds ReportTame-
9/13 8:30am ET August CPIMixed -
9/14 8:30am ET August PPITame -
9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame 9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflationTame-
9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame -
9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market IndexTame 9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexMixedMarket saw Hawkish9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decision-
9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyMixed 9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Key incoming data August 2023:
8/1 10am ET July ISM ManufacturingTame8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings JunTame8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment ReportHot8/3 10am ET July ISM ServicesTame8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs reportTame8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July FinalTame8/10 8:30am ET July CPITame8/11 8:30am ET July PPITame8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflationTame8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker JulyTame8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing SurveyMixed8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market IndexTame8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity SurveyNeutral8/16 2pm ET FOMC MinutesMixed8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyPositive8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug PrelimWeak8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflationMixed8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTSTame8/31 8:30am ET July PCETame
Key incoming data July 2023:
7/3 10am ET June ISM ManufacturingTame7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment ReportHot7/6 10am ET June ISM ServicesTame7/6 10 am ET May JOLTSTame7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs reportMixed7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June FinalTame7/12 8:30am ET June CPITame7/13 8:30am ET June PPITame7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker JuneTame7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflationMixed7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Indexin-line7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decisionTame7/28 8:30am ET June PCETame7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost IndexTame7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame
Key data from June 2023:
6/1 10am ET May ISM ManufacturingTame6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs reportTame6/5 10am ET May ISM ServicesTame6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index MayTame6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker AprilTame6/13 8:30am ET May CPITame6/14 8:30am ET May PPITame6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decisionTame6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflationTame6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame6/30 8:30am ET May PCETame6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame
Key data from May 2023:
5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up)Positive inflection5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTSSofter than consensus5/3 10am ET April ISM ServicesTame5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decisionDovish5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs reportTame5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index AprilTame5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion SurveyBetter than feared5/10 8:30am ET April CPITame5/11 8:30am ET April PPITame5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflationTame5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker AprilTame5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutesDovish5/26 8:30am ET PCE AprilTame5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflationTame5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings