INTRADAY ALERT: June Core PCE +0.18% MoM good enough for markets to raise odds of +50bp (2 cuts) in Sept = good. Supports "summer of small-caps"

The June Core PCE came in at +0.18% MoM. This was slightly higher than consenus but as we highlight below, there are 4 items driving this:

The 4 upside drivers for June PCE:- Professional services- Food services- Other durable goods- Recreational items In total, this added +0.14bp sequentially to core PCE MoM. That is like the entire rise MoM vs May of +0.13%. Do these categories have a sudden surge in inflation? I don't see how. To me, this is statistical noise....

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