![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-27.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-89-1024x686.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-90-1024x441.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-91-1024x439.png)
VIDEO: The key event this week is Wed with CPI and FOMC. While markets are generally anxious into these meetings, we discuss why history shows this is a time to be constructive
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:35).
At the start of last week, markets were incrementally dovish, fueled by the soft “pricing” readings in the ISM surveys (both manufacturing and services). But Friday’s jobs strongish report resurfaced hawkish views as YE2024 Fed cuts tanked from 1.9 to 1.5. In our view, an over-reaction to “strong” data but a reminder (or confirmation) that markets lean hawkish/bearish. We think this is a positive setup for the coming week and we remain constructive on stocks for June overall.
- The most important day this week will be Wednesday:
– 6/10 Mon 11:00 AM ET: May NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp
– 6/11 Tue 6:00 AM ET: May Small Business Optimism Survey 89.5e
– 6/12 Wed 8:30 AM ET: May Core CPI 0.29%e
– 6/12 Wed 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Decision
– 6/13 Thu 8:30 AM ET: May Core PPI 0.27%e
– 6/14 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Jun P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp 3.2%e - Fed fund futures rate expectations have moved sharply in the past week ahead of this week.
– prior to May jobs (6/7)
– # Fed cuts by Dec 2024 priced 1.9
– post-May jobs, this dropped to 1.5
– thus, this week’s FOMC and CPI reports arguably an outsized impact - To us, it seems that the plurality of investors are “hawkish” and thus, when we get inflationary-like data, the market rapidly reprices more hikes. And we find that the “hawks” of the Fed are given stronger credence, but they remain the minority at the Fed. The leading indicators all point to softer inflation as evidenced by the U Mich surveys, falling oil, tanking car prices, goods deflation, even the ISM surveys. And while the Fed remains data dependent, the leading indicators point to lower inflation ahead, which in turn, points to a Fed becoming more dovish.
- Looking at the 5 FOMC rate decision post-Fed pivot (last Fall), the base case for stocks is actually constructive.
– Equity markets post-FOMC 5 of the last 6 meetings
– Post-presser (2:30pm)….5D and 10D gains
– Nov 1, 2023……+3.8%….+6.6%
– Dec 13, 2023….+0.0%….+1.8%
– Jan 31, 2024…..+2.4%….+2.5%
– Mar 20, 2024…+0.7%….-1.2%
– May 1, 2024……+2.0%….+4.3% - All in all, very positive reactions post-FOMC meetings. This does imply that the markets have a dovish takeaway from the Fed comments. Or that markets were “nervous” into the FOMC, and thus, this event was the buyable event. The only negative reaction was post the March FOMC. And that was after a string of “hot” CPI prints. So, this naturally puts a lot of focus on the May CPI report, which will be released that morning.
- Economists have been literally using the same estimate for Core CPI for each of the last 7 months:
– Month (date)…….est…….actual
– Nov (12/12/23)….0.30%….0.31%
– Dec (1/11/24)…….0.30%….0.28%
– Jan (2/13/24)…….0.30%….0.39%
– Feb (3/12/24)……0.30%….0.36%
– Mar (4/10/24)…..0.30%….0.36%
– April (5/15/24)….0.30%….0.29%
– May (6/12/24)…..0.29% - But as the above shows, the trend has been lower reported Core CPI. We will talk about the key drivers in the next few days of videos and notes but the high level takeaway is that inflation is on a glidepath lower than many believe. The Fed continues to play a waiting game for housing and auto insurance to catch-up and this will play out in lower overall CPI in coming months.
Bottom line: While we expect markets to be nervous this week, we think this will prove to be a positive overall for equities
The main event is this Wednesday with both CPI and FOMC. Overall, a very important macro week for stocks. We remain constructive on stocks in June. There are reasons to be constructive on stocks near term, which we discussed recently.
- The 6 supports/catalysts for the month of June:
– first, high probability June a positive month (seasonal below)
– second, favorable inflation data points:
– third, low utilization of leverage, measured by NYSE Margin Debt
– fourth, $6 trillion and growing cash on sidelines, yep, still
– fifth, persistent pessimism on market and the US consumer
– sixth, EPS season shows AI spending/transformation still strong
And if the seasonal median gain of +3.9% is correct, the S&P 500 could possibly touch 5,500 during the month. We still stick with what is working:
- AI NVDA 1.39% CDNS 1.24% ARM AMD 1.97% AIQ 1.32%
- Ozempic-related LLY 1.79% NVO 1.13%
- Financials and Industrials XLI 0.98% XLF 0.77%
- Bitcoin & Proxies: BTC MARA -1.53% PYPL -0.93% COIN -2.70% MSTR 0.14% SMLR -4.68%
- Feb Stealth: Small-caps IWM 0.59% IJR 0.49%
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-99-1024x813.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-100-1024x820.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-92-1024x815.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-93-1024x827.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-94-1024x846.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-95-1024x808.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-96-1024x807.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-97-1024x804.png)
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-98-1024x823.png)
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Key incoming data June:
6/3 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame6/3 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Manufacturing PMITame6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr JOLTS Job OpeningsTame6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Durable Goods OrdersTame6/5 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Services PMITame6/5 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Services PMITame6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Nonfarm ProductivityTame6/6 8:30 AM ET: Apr Trade BalanceTame6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Unit Labor CostsTame6/7 8:30 AM ET: May Jobs ReportHot6/7 9:00 AM ET: May F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame- 6/10 11:00 AM ET: May NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
- 6/11 6:00 AM ET: May Small Business Optimism Survey
- 6/12 8:30 AM ET: May CPI
- 6/12 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Decision
- 6/13 8:30 AM ET: May PPI
- 6/14 10:00 AM ET: Jun P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
- 6/17 8:30 AM ET: Jun Empire Manufacturing Survey
- 6/18 8:30 AM ET: May Retail Sales Data
- 6/18 9:00 AM ET: Jun M Manheim Used vehicle index
- 6/18 4:00 PM ET: Apr Net TIC Flows
- 6/19 10:00 AM ET: Jun NAHB Housing Market Index
- 6/20 8:30 AM ET: Jun Philly Fed Business Outlook
- 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Services PMI
- 6/21 10:00 AM ET: May Existing Home Sales
- 6/24 10:30 AM ET: Jun Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
- 6/25 8:30 AM ET: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 6/25 9:00 AM ET: Apr S&P CoreLogic CS home price
- 6/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- 6/26 10:00 AM ET: May New Home Sales
- 6/27 8:30 AM ET: 1Q T 2024 GDP
- 6/27 10:00 AM ET: May P Durable Goods Orders
- 6/28 8:30 AM ET: May PCE Deflator
- 6/28 10:00 AM ET: Jun F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
Key incoming data May 2024:
5/1 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame5/1 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Manufacturing PMITame5/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job OpeningsTame5/1 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC DecisionDovish5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Nonfarm ProductivityTame5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar Trade BalanceTame5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Unit Labor CostsMixed5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar F Durable Goods OrdersTame5/3 8:30 AM ET: Apr Jobs ReportTame5/3 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMITame5/3 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Services PMITame5/7 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame5/10 10:00 AM ET: May P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationMixed5/13 11:00 AM ET: Apr NYFed 1yr Inf ExpTame5/14 6:00 AM ET: Apr Small Business Optimisim SurveyTame5/14 8:30 AM ET: Apr PPIMixed5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr CPITame5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Retail Sales DataTame5/15 8:30 AM ET: May Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame5/15 10:00 AM ET: May NAHB Housing Market IndexTame5/15 4:00 PM ET: Mar Net TIC FlowsTame5/16 8:30 AM ET: May Philly Fed Business OutlookTame5/17 10:00 AM ET: May M Manheim Used vehicle indexTame5/22 10:00 AM ET: Apr Existing Home SalesTame5/22 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Meeting MinutesTame5/23 8:30 AM ET: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMITame5/23 10:00 AM ET: Apr New Home SalesTame5/24 8:30 AM ET: Apr P Durable Goods OrdersTame5/24 10:00 AM ET: May F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame5/28 9:00 AM ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame5/28 10:00 AM ET: May Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame5/28 10:30 AM ET: May Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame5/29 2:00 PM ET: May Fed Releases Beige BookTame5/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q S 2024 GDPTame5/31 8:30 AM ET: Apr PCE DeflatorTame
Key incoming data April 2024:
4/01 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame4/01 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ManufacturingMixed4/02 10:00 am ET: Feb JOLTS Job OpeningsTame4/03 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMITame4/03 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ServicesTame4/05 8:30 am ET: Mar Jobs ReportHot4/05 9:00 am ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame4/10 8:30 am ET: Mar CPIHot4/10 2pm ET: Mar FOMC Meeting MinutesTame4/11 8:30 am ET: Mar PPITame4/12 10:00 am ET: Apr P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame4/15 8:30 am ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame4/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Retail Sales DataMixed4/15 10:00 am ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market IndexTame4/16 8:30 am ET: Apr New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame4/17 9:00 am ET: Apr Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame4/17 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame4/18 8:30 am ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame4/22 8:30 am ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity SurveyTame4/23 9:45 am ET: Apr P S&P Global PMITame4/25 8:30 am ET: 1QA 2024 GDPTame4/26 8:30 am ET: Mar PCETame4/29 10:30 am ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame4/30 8:30 am ET: 1Q ECI Employment Cost IndexMixed4/30 9:00 am ET: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
Key incoming data March 2024:
3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ManufacturingTame3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMITame3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ServicesTame3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services CommitteeDovish3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job OpeningsTame3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityTame3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban AffairsDovish3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs ReportMixed- 3
/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPISlightly Hot (as anticipated) 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPIMixed3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales DataTame3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market IndexTame3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate DecisionDovish3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMITame3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDPTame3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCETame
Key incoming data February 2024:
2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityMixed2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January FinalTame2/01 10am ET January ISM ManufacturingMixed2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs ReportHot2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January FinalTame2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January FinalTame2/05 10am ET January ISM ServicesTame2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January FinalMixed2/09 CPI RevisionsTame2/13 8:30am ET January CPIMixed2/14 PPI RevisionsTame2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales DataTame2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market IndexTame2/16 8:30am ET January PPIMixed2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February PrelimTame2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-MonthTame2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting MinutesTame2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February PrelimTame2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame- 2/
28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDPTame 2/29 8:30am ET January PCETame
Key incoming data January 2024:
1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December FinalMixed1/03 10am ET December ISM ManufacturingTame1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings NovemberTame1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting MinutesTame1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December FinalTame1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs ReportMixed1/05 10am ET December ISM ServicesTame1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December FinalTame- 1/
11 8:30am ET December CPIDetails Suggest Tame 1/12 8:30am ET December PPITame1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales DataStrong1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-MonthTame1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market IndexMixed1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January PrelimTame1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January PrelimMixed1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDPMixed1/26 8:30am ET December PCETame1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings DecemberMixed1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionTame
Key incoming data December 2023:
12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November FinalTame12/01 10am ET November ISM ManufacturingStrong12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November FinalStrong12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings OctoberTame12/05 10am ET November ISM ServicesStrong12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityStrong12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November FinalTame12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs ReportTame12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December PrelimTame12/12 8:30am ET November CPITame12/13 8:30am ET November PPITame12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionDovish12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales DataTame12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December PrelimTame12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market IndexTame12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-MonthTame12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDPMixed12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyMixed12/22 8:30am ET November PCETame12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December FinalTame12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame- 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI
Key incoming data November 2023:
11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October FinalTame11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings SeptemberMixed11/01 10am ET October ISM ManufacturingTame11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press ConferenceTame11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionDovish11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm ProductivityTame11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs ReportTame11/03 10am ET October ISM ServicesMixed11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October FinalTame11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationHot11/14 8:30am ET October CPITame11/15 8:30am ET October PPITame11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing SurveyResilient11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales DataResilient11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market IndexTame11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-MonthTame11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting MinutesTame11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November PrelimMixed11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDPStrong11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige BookTame11/30 8:30am ET October PCETame
Key incoming data October 2023:
10/2 10am ET September ISM ManufacturingTame-
10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings AugustHot -
10/4 10am ET September ISM ServicesTame 10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs ReportMixed-
10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September FinalTame 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation ExpectationsMixed-
10/11 8:30am ET September PPIMixed 10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting MinutesTame-
10/12 8:30am ET September CPIMixed -
10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflationMixed 10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales DataHot10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market IndexTame10/18 8:30am ET September Housing StartsTame10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige BookTame10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame10/19 10am ET Existing Home SalesTame10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October PrelimTame-
10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP AdvanceStrong 10/27 8:30am ET September PCETame10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectationTame10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost IndexMixed10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home priceMixed10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
Key incoming data September 2023:
9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs ReportTame9/1 10am ET August ISM ManufacturingTame9/6 10am ET August ISM ServicesMixed9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige BookTame9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August FinalTame9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds ReportTame-
9/13 8:30am ET August CPIMixed -
9/14 8:30am ET August PPITame -
9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame 9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflationTame-
9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame -
9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market IndexTame 9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexMixedMarket saw Hawkish9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decision-
9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyMixed 9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Key incoming data August 2023:
8/1 10am ET July ISM ManufacturingTame8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings JunTame8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment ReportHot8/3 10am ET July ISM ServicesTame8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs reportTame8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July FinalTame8/10 8:30am ET July CPITame8/11 8:30am ET July PPITame8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflationTame8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker JulyTame8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing SurveyMixed8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market IndexTame8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity SurveyNeutral8/16 2pm ET FOMC MinutesMixed8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyPositive8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug PrelimWeak8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflationMixed8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTSTame8/31 8:30am ET July PCETame
Key incoming data July 2023:
7/3 10am ET June ISM ManufacturingTame7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment ReportHot7/6 10am ET June ISM ServicesTame7/6 10 am ET May JOLTSTame7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs reportMixed7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June FinalTame7/12 8:30am ET June CPITame7/13 8:30am ET June PPITame7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker JuneTame7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflationMixed7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Indexin-line7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decisionTame7/28 8:30am ET June PCETame7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost IndexTame7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame
Key data from June 2023:
6/1 10am ET May ISM ManufacturingTame6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs reportTame6/5 10am ET May ISM ServicesTame6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index MayTame6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker AprilTame6/13 8:30am ET May CPITame6/14 8:30am ET May PPITame6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decisionTame6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflationTame6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame6/30 8:30am ET May PCETame6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame
Key data from May 2023:
5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up)Positive inflection5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTSSofter than consensus5/3 10am ET April ISM ServicesTame5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decisionDovish5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs reportTame5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index AprilTame5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion SurveyBetter than feared5/10 8:30am ET April CPITame5/11 8:30am ET April PPITame5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflationTame5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker AprilTame5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutesDovish5/26 8:30am ET PCE AprilTame5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflationTame5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings
![May CPI and June FOMC (both Wed this week) likely viewed positively by equities. Equities positive 5D later 5 of last 6 FOMC meetings.](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/image-255.png)