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Despite major inflation prints, market knocked off 1 Fed hike by YE to 8 from 9

This week saw several major inflation prints. Strong March CPI yesterday (see our First Word on this), today March PPI +1% (ex-food, energy), both 40-year highs YoY. Yet, two things are happening this week:

  • Odds of a Fed hike by YE 2022 have dropped from 9 to 8 in just the past 3 days
  • Yield curve 10Y less 2Y is dramatically steepening
  • And extra credit, equities managing to show surprising strength
As we have said previously, a lot of bad news seems to be priced in. And also, if T+2 applies, today ...

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