COVID-19 UPDATE: Good weekend data, and strengthens COVID-19 "surge" is over. Puzzling relapse in 5 states - VA, IL, MI, MD, PA

The narrative around COVID-19 and the US economy has become a bit messy in the past few weeks.  Since late June, daily cases were surging throughout the US and prompting many states to roll back some of easing measures.  And this in turn causes high-frequency economic activity to slow.  And in turn, this causes investors to rotate heavily into NASDAQ/tech/work from home vs epicenter/cyclicals.

There were signs early last week that daily COVID-19 case trends were peaking, but as we commented last week, this weekend was critical as 7/24/2020 (Friday) was 7D after the "official new high." And if US cases were peaking, it was critical for new COVID-19 cases not to make a new high this weekend.

That is good news.

As shown below, daily cases over the past few days continued to edge lower.  On Sunday evening, daily cases fell below 60,000 and are 4,000 lower than 7D ago.  So even adjusting for potential seasonality, the progress in daily cases is indeed trending lower.

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Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project

As further evidence daily cases have peaked, this is now the 7th consecutive day that the daily cases delta (vs 7D ago) is flat/down.  As shown on the chart below, this is a break in trend compared to much of June and July when daily cases delta (vs 7D ago) was surging.

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