COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily vaccinations now 45X daily cases = way ahead. Conditions in place for a significant rally to continue into April led by Small-caps + Energy + Epicenter

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

We are shifting to a 4-day a week publication schedule:

  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • SKIP THURSDAY
  • Friday

STRATEGY: Moving into 2Q2021, leadership intact = Small-caps + Energy + Epicenter
The daily confirmed case figures for COVID-19 have stalled in the past few weeks, stabilizing ~50k-60k per day. Taking a step back, today, vaccinations might matter more than daily case trends. Why? Take a look below:

- Daily vaccinations are 45X daily confirmed cases
- Hence, for every confirmed case, there are now 45 Americans vaccinated
- As long as vaccinations work (which evidence suggest this), trends in vaccinations > daily case trends

In other words, vaccinations are a leading indicator.
- vaccinations create cumulative benefit (penetration)
- vaccinations take 30 days to be fully effective (takes time)

Thus, as long as the US has this prodigious ratio of vaccinations to cases, this is pointing to a future decline in the pervasiveness of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, we continue to believe the combined ratio of vaccinations + recovered infected is informative in understanding a community's potential herd immunity.

- Daily cases came in at ~37,000 but 7 states did not report (Easter Sunday). So I would ...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)