We discuss: Tireless Ken and team analyzed earnings transcripts and found 360 references to Israel-Gaza connected to headwinds, uncertainty, compared to ~45 to 50 past 5 quarters. So the war is even top of mind for CEOs and their caution. This week there are 9 key macro events and the could trigger a large convergence between bonds and stocks.
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 7:16).
Over the weekend, I spoke with a few of my larger macro clients (common on Sunday afternoons) and one was puzzled about why bonds have been relatively stable in the past week, yet equities fell -2.5% in the past week. In fact, this is the story this entire month, since the start of October, US 10-year yields have moved from 4.679% to 4.835% (up 16bp modest) while S&P 500 has fallen 4% (4,288 to 4,117).Some of these fixed income clients are puzzled because the incoming economic data had leaned dovish and hence, flattish rates. When I mentioned that equity investors seem to be bothered by the uncertainty around the Israel-Gaza war and threat of regiona...